According to research from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, an increase in greenhouse gases will have a positive effect on crop yields in the future. While that might sound like good news, the bigger picture suggests climate change, of which greenhouse gas is only a part, will have an overall negative impact.
EPA’s key findings included:
- Unmitigated climate change is projected to result in substantial decreases in yields for most major agricultural crops.
- Global GHG mitigation is projected to substantially benefit U.S. crop yields compared to the reference scenario.
EPA went on to say, “Without significant global GHG mitigation, climate change is projected to have a large negative impact on the U.S. agriculture sector.” It’s reasonable to assume the rest of the world would suffer a similar fate.
There’s are a couple of caveats to EPA’s investigations. First the research did not factor in how climate change might affect pests and disease. They also don’t take into account any technological advances.
In theory, this could mean good things for the crop inputs industry. If crop yields around the world suffer from conditions contributing to change – flooding, drought, increases in pests, changes to growing seasons, etc. – growers might be in greater need of available crop input solutions.
I’m not suggesting we should ignore impact of greenhouse gases and the threat they pose. Most of the scenarios paint a rather dreary future. Coastal areas under several feet of water or regions laid waste by severe drought won’t be in need of crop inputs.
That’s one more of the many reasons biological products are growing in popularity around the world. Biological products are not a panacea. At least now, they can’t find the solution to all grower’s problems. The key is finding the right mix of traditional and biological products that help growers without contributing to climate change.