As the trade dispute between China and the United States intensifies, China’s dependency on U.S. soybeans may limit its ability to set tariffs, a new Rabobank report says.
Después de que el gobierno de EE. UU. Anunciara sanciones comerciales a las importaciones chinas de alrededor de $60 mil millones, China anunció que tomaría represalias. Ha anunciado aranceles de 25% para la carne de cerdo, 15% sobre nueces, frutas, verduras y vino, pero no ha anunciado una posición con respecto a la soja.
According to the report, “If China Strikes Back,” China’s dependency, short-term global constraints, and the complexity required to fully source its feed demand chain may limit its ability to set tariffs on U.S. soybeans. The current global excess soybean supplies available for export from major producing countries would not be able to compensate for an unexpected disruption of U.S. soybean flows to China. Brazil already exports upwards of 74% of its soybeans to China, and it won’t have the immediate capacity to meet new needs, Rabobank says.
However, Rabobank estimates that if China increases current tariffs and cuts U.S. soybean imports by 100 million bushels, U.S. soybean farm prices will decline from current levels “by around 4% to 5% in the very short run.”
“We anticipate that prices will recover as U.S. soybeans will remain competitive and will likely find other markets such as Mexico, which continues to expand its animal protein platform. However, soybeans are likely to lose ground to corn in the competition for planted acreage in the U.S. This will impact production areas, which are becoming reliant on soybeans for rotation and even as a primary crop,” the report says.
Para obtener más información sobre el informe, comuníquese con RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness — North America.