After decades in the shadows, the non-crop segment of the agrochemical market has thrived over the last 15 years, especially in developing countries where pesticides to control insects and rodents are making significant improvements to quality of life. True, per capita expenditure on pesticides is still way behind that of the US or Europe, but good economic growth has increased disposable income for many in these countries, and in economists’ jargon, they have demonstrated a high propensity to spend on household pesticides. There has been consistent growth in other parts of the non-crop market too, for instance relating to leisure activities like golf and gardening, but this is mainly in the developed world.
Algunas verdades nos muestran que no cultivo, a pesar de su nombre poco atractivo, es una fuerza a tener en cuenta:
In overall terms, the global market for non-crop — which includes all uses of pesticides apart from crop production — looks to be worth around US $15 billion at the end user level. A new global survey will be coming out later this year which is expected to show that this growth is continuing. If so, it will demonstrate that the drivers of this dramatic expansion are based not on vulnerable fashion, but on the solid determination of people to use pesticides to control — and kill if necessary — insects, weeds, and diseases that interfere with their enjoyment of life, not least their health.
Contrast that with the crop protection business … well, there is little comparison. Data from Allan Woodburn, one of the more reliable observers, shows that the crop business shrank by an average of 0.2% per year through the 1990s, and by 0.4% from 2000 to 2004. Slight growth in 2005 and a drop in 2006 completed a 15-year period of stagnation or decline. The outlook now is not much brighter, even allowing for the Bush administration’s commitment to expand biofuel production in the US, since genetically modified (GM) corn will likely account for most of the additional crop.
Yet, apart from DEET and timber treatment chemicals, almost every non-crop product has first been developed for crop pests — as they still are today. So it’s all the more remarkable that demand has risen fast when products are only slightly adapted to the needs of final users.
Simple en concepto, difícil de cuantificar
The non-crop sector is simple to define — every use of pesticides apart from crop growing — but it is hard to measure. By far the most important segment is home and garden, which accounts for around 60% of the entire market.
Asia, the fastest growing part of the market, accounts for 35% of global demand and is rapidly overhauling the Americas. India and China in many ways typify the dynamic state of the non-crop market. Per capita expenditure on non-crop products doubled in India in the last seven years, mostly for household insecticides (yet it’s still only 4% of the US market), with even the poorest people benefiting from economic growth and choosing to spend more on products that make a material difference to their home environments. India is typical of many developing countries where there are similar prospects of rapid growth in per capita expenditure.
Desglose del mercado
Más de 600 ingredientes activos están detrás de las aproximadamente 3,000 marcas en uso, pero algunos insecticidas y herbicidas clave se destacan con proporciones significativas.
Hay una proliferación de marcas con ingredientes activos (ais) casi idénticos, especialmente para los insecticidas en los países en desarrollo, y esto explica en gran medida la concentración.
Casi el 40% de todas las marcas que no son cultivos por valor están en manos de cinco empresas: Scotts, Bayer, SC Johnson, Syngenta, yIndustrias Unidas. Las marcas de las tiendas representan otro 5%; el resto pertenece a más de 500 empresas más pequeñas.
Aparte de Bayer, which has committed fully to the non-crop cause, most of the R&D-based ag-chem companies are still lukewarm, despite what is sometimes claimed. Perhaps this is consistent with top management whose careers — until recently — have progressed in an overwhelmingly ag-oriented industry. For a paradigm shift there may have to be a major external development, such as additional consumer companies moving into the market — a more imminent possibility than before.
Cadenas largas, grandes beneficios
Hasta hace muy poco, se habían realizado pocas investigaciones sobre la distribución de plaguicidas no agrícolas. ¿Cómo se trasladaron los productos del fabricante al usuario final, fue eficiente y qué empresas participaron? Con base en estudios de Europa, Australia y Japón, se pueden dar algunas respuestas.
Compared to agriculture, the distribution chain for non-crop is much longer — and more profitable. At the ex-manufacturer level of sales of technical material, the market in the five major countries of Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) was worth around US $665 million in 2002, while end user level sales of formulated, branded products amounted to US $2.1 billion. Mark-ups (costs plus margin) of this magnitude were also found in Australia and Japan.
¿Por qué esta diferencia? Surgen dos factores principales:
- Most non-crop products are sold in small quantities to large numbers of end users — especially in home and garden — and this demands many steps in the distribution chain, with wholesalers to service numerous retail outlets.
- Packaging is more extensive — 60% of non-crop is home and garden, and the end user wants to purchase convenient packets of pesticide.
Como reflejo de las concentraciones relativas de poder de negociación, los minoristas de los mercados del hogar, el jardín y las plantas ornamentales en Europa tienen los márgenes más grandes de toda la cadena de distribución, mientras que para el resto del mercado no agrícola, como los herbicidas industriales, el césped y el control de plagas. operadores (PCO), los fabricantes de ia comandan esa posición.
Mercado complejo y fragmentado
For most of non-crop, the chain is complex and fragmented, and often distinct from crop pesticides. The major ai manufacturers vary in their penetration of the chain and their approaches to it. Attempts to go “downstream” in Italy, for example, have largely been abandoned, and in all countries, local companies are major players in distribution.
El mercado relativamente pequeño de plaguicidas para la silvicultura en Francia (US $5,9 millones) muestra lo compleja que puede ser la distribución con una variedad de canales de distribución en diferentes niveles de la cadena.
La consolidación presenta oportunidades para mejorar la eficiencia y reducir los costos generales. Algunas iniciativas en Europa han tenido éxito (por ejemplo, las de Scotts en el hogar y el jardín), mientras que otras relacionadas con Terminix han tenido problemas. No obstante, sigue habiendo un margen considerable en toda Europa, especialmente en el nivel minorista fragmentado con PCO.
Impulsores del mercado, crecimiento futuro
Looking ahead to 2010, provided the two key drivers of the market persist — development of education and economic growth — further expansion is anticipated, especially in developing countries.
Looking ahead, many imponderables could deflect non-crop from a path of regular growth, the most likely overall scenario for the next few years. For example, a major human disaster involving poisoning by non-crop pesticides would seriously undermine the assessment of the risks and benefits inherent in their use. On the other hand, an outbreak of West Nile Virus or the return of malaria to Western Europe — if subsequently controlled by effective use of insecticides — would be a very positive boost for their image.
Governments in developed countries seek to satisfy the concerns of their electorates, which at present are broadly to minimize the use of pesticides. Thus vegetation on railway embankments is controlled with energy-intensive mowing rather than a cheap herbicide. On the other hand, most strands of the anti-pesticide lobby are more focused on food and the environment than non-crop. Perhaps they are reluctant to engage with the public when the public’s desire to use pesticides relates to issues of human health or the maintenance of a nuisance-free living environment.
Existen rumores sobre los supuestos planes de ciertas empresas de consumo de invertir en productos no agrícolas. Sin lugar a dudas, su participación cambiaría drásticamente todo el negocio, entre otras cosas al alinear más el marketing de productos no agrícolas con otros bienes de consumo, impulsar la demanda y reformar radicalmente la distribución. Sin embargo, hasta ahora, las grandes inversiones siguen siendo un espejismo.
¿Última mejor esperanza?
¿Está despertando la industria agroquímica a las posibilidades del mercado no agrícola? Para algunas empresas, podría ser su mejor oportunidad de supervivencia. Con un crecimiento continuo de 4% a 5% por año en términos monetarios actuales, para 2010 el mercado no agrícola tendría un valor de US $ $19 mil millones, mientras que la protección de cultivos probablemente todavía estará en el rango de US $33 a $34 mil millones. En ese momento, los no cultivos podrían incluso tener un nuevo nombre.