After decades in the shadows, the non-crop segment of the agrochemical market has thrived over the last 15 years, especially in developing countries where pesticides to control insects and rodents are making significant improvements to quality of life. True, per capita expenditure on pesticides is still way behind that of the US or Europe, but good economic growth has increased disposable income for many in these countries, and in economists’ jargon, they have demonstrated a high propensity to spend on household pesticides. There has been consistent growth in other parts of the non-crop market too, for instance relating to leisure activities like golf and gardening, but this is mainly in the developed world.
一些事实告诉我们，非作物，尽管它的名字并不吸引人，但却是一股不可忽视的力量：
In overall terms, the global market for non-crop — which includes all uses of pesticides apart from crop production — looks to be worth around US $15 billion at the end user level. A new global survey will be coming out later this year which is expected to show that this growth is continuing. If so, it will demonstrate that the drivers of this dramatic expansion are based not on vulnerable fashion, but on the solid determination of people to use pesticides to control — and kill if necessary — insects, weeds, and diseases that interfere with their enjoyment of life, not least their health.
Contrast that with the crop protection business … well, there is little comparison. Data from Allan Woodburn, one of the more reliable observers, shows that the crop business shrank by an average of 0.2% per year through the 1990s, and by 0.4% from 2000 to 2004. Slight growth in 2005 and a drop in 2006 completed a 15-year period of stagnation or decline. The outlook now is not much brighter, even allowing for the Bush administration’s commitment to expand biofuel production in the US, since genetically modified (GM) corn will likely account for most of the additional crop.
Yet, apart from DEET and timber treatment chemicals, almost every non-crop product has first been developed for crop pests — as they still are today. So it’s all the more remarkable that demand has risen fast when products are only slightly adapted to the needs of final users.
概念简单，难以量化
The non-crop sector is simple to define — every use of pesticides apart from crop growing — but it is hard to measure. By far the most important segment is home and garden, which accounts for around 60% of the entire market.
Asia, the fastest growing part of the market, accounts for 35% of global demand and is rapidly overhauling the Americas. India and China in many ways typify the dynamic state of the non-crop market. Per capita expenditure on non-crop products doubled in India in the last seven years, mostly for household insecticides (yet it’s still only 4% of the US market), with even the poorest people benefiting from economic growth and choosing to spend more on products that make a material difference to their home environments. India is typical of many developing countries where there are similar prospects of rapid growth in per capita expenditure.
市场细分
在使用的 3,000 多个品牌背后，有 600 多种活性成分，但一些关键的杀虫剂和除草剂以显着份额脱颖而出。
具有几乎相同活性成分 (ais) 的品牌激增，尤其是在发展中国家的杀虫剂，这在很大程度上解释了集中度。
按价值计算，所有非作物品牌中近 40% 由五家公司持有： 斯科茨, 拜耳, 庄臣, 先正达，和联合工业.门店品牌占比另外5%；其余的属于 500 多家较小的公司。
除了 拜耳, which has committed fully to the non-crop cause, most of the R&D-based ag-chem companies are still lukewarm, despite what is sometimes claimed. Perhaps this is consistent with top management whose careers — until recently — have progressed in an overwhelmingly ag-oriented industry. For a paradigm shift there may have to be a major external development, such as additional consumer companies moving into the market — a more imminent possibility than before.
链条长，利润高
直到最近，关于非农作物杀虫剂分布的研究还很少。产品是如何从制造商转移到最终用户的，效率高吗？涉及哪些公司？根据对欧洲、澳大利亚和日本的研究，可以给出一些答案。
Compared to agriculture, the distribution chain for non-crop is much longer — and more profitable. At the ex-manufacturer level of sales of technical material, the market in the five major countries of Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) was worth around US $665 million in 2002, while end user level sales of formulated, branded products amounted to US $2.1 billion. Mark-ups (costs plus margin) of this magnitude were also found in Australia and Japan.
为什么会有这种差异？出现两个主要因素：
- Most non-crop products are sold in small quantities to large numbers of end users — especially in home and garden — and this demands many steps in the distribution chain, with wholesalers to service numerous retail outlets.
- Packaging is more extensive — 60% of non-crop is home and garden, and the end user wants to purchase convenient packets of pesticide.
反映议价能力的相对集中，欧洲家庭、花园和观赏植物市场的零售商在整个分销链中拥有最大的利润，而在工业除草剂、草皮和害虫防治等非作物市场的其余部分运营商 (PCO)，人工智能制造商掌握着这一地位。
复杂、分散的市场
For most of non-crop, the chain is complex and fragmented, and often distinct from crop pesticides. The major ai manufacturers vary in their penetration of the chain and their approaches to it. Attempts to go “downstream” in Italy, for example, have largely been abandoned, and in all countries, local companies are major players in distribution.
法国相对较小的林业杀虫剂市场（$590 万美元）表明，在供应链不同层次的各种分销渠道中，分销是多么复杂。
合并为提高效率和降低总体成本提供了机会。欧洲的一些举措取得了成功（例如 Scotts 在家庭和花园中的举措），而其他涉及 Terminix 的举措却遇到了问题。尽管如此，整个欧洲仍有相当大的空间，尤其是在 PCO 的零散零售层面。
市场驱动力，未来增长
Looking ahead to 2010, provided the two key drivers of the market persist — development of education and economic growth — further expansion is anticipated, especially in developing countries.
Looking ahead, many imponderables could deflect non-crop from a path of regular growth, the most likely overall scenario for the next few years. For example, a major human disaster involving poisoning by non-crop pesticides would seriously undermine the assessment of the risks and benefits inherent in their use. On the other hand, an outbreak of West Nile Virus or the return of malaria to Western Europe — if subsequently controlled by effective use of insecticides — would be a very positive boost for their image.
Governments in developed countries seek to satisfy the concerns of their electorates, which at present are broadly to minimize the use of pesticides. Thus vegetation on railway embankments is controlled with energy-intensive mowing rather than a cheap herbicide. On the other hand, most strands of the anti-pesticide lobby are more focused on food and the environment than non-crop. Perhaps they are reluctant to engage with the public when the public’s desire to use pesticides relates to issues of human health or the maintenance of a nuisance-free living environment.
关于某些消费品公司据称计划投资非农作物的谣言存在。毫无疑问，他们的参与将极大地改变整个业务，尤其是通过使非农作物营销与其他快速消费品更加一致、刺激需求以及从根本上改革分销。然而，到目前为止，重大投资仍然是海市蜃楼。
最后的希望？
农业化学行业是否意识到非农作物市场的可能性？对于一些公司来说，这可能是他们最好的生存机会。以当前货币计算，随着每年 4% 到 5% 的持续增长，到 2010 年，非作物市场价值将达到 $190 亿美元，而作物保护仍可能在 $33 到 $34 亿美元的范围内。那时，非作物甚至可能有一个新名称。