作物保护市场的发展：美国和欧盟
2024 年 1 十一月 本文将概述美国和欧盟作物保护市场的发展，分析当前形势以及预计在未来一年影响市场发展的主要未来趋势。
市场价值是 Agbiolnvestor 对农业年度内地面使用的农作物保护产品价值的估计，以出厂价美元表示。对于北半球国家，农业年度大约为 10 月至次年 9 月，例如“2023”是指 2023 年 10 月至 2024 年 9 月之间地面使用的产品价值。
可用的最新完整数据年份是 2023 年，并提供了 2024 年的初步估计以及更长期的展望。
公司在区域业绩表现中关注的关键因素如下：
北美： Inventory destocking, low prices. Declining commodity prices.
Central & South America: Delayed purchasing at distributor level. Unfavorable weather in key markets, notably Brazil, impacting volume use. Declining commodity prices.
亚太地区： Prices remain under pressure, and volumes impacted by unfavourable weather. Low pest pressure in key markets, notably India, where high inventories also remained an issue.
欧洲： Unfavorable weather conditions, including heavy rains in Western Europe. Product withdrawals. Pricing remains robust.
北美市场回顾
关键因素
- 在美国，玉米和小麦种植面积减少，但大豆种植面积增加。
- 农用化学品价格下跌。
- 较低的商品价格阻碍了种植者的购买力。
- 美国大部分地区普遍出现干旱状况，据报道超过 2.1 亿英亩土地遭遇干旱。
- 天气条件更加有利于美国大豆的种植；然而，强劲的产量可能会进一步阻碍大豆价格的上涨。
预计2024财年（10月至9月）美国农业贸易逆差总额将达到$305亿美元，比5月份的预测低$15亿美元，但比上一年的逆差高出$134亿美元。 - 预计2025财年，美国农业贸易逆差预计将进一步增加，达到创纪录的$425亿美元。
- 加拿大的干旱状况有所缓解，总农作物面积中只有 52% 被归类为处于干旱条件下，低于上一季度的近 60%。
- 2024 年加拿大农作物面积变化：
- 小麦面积略有下降，硬粒小麦面积的增加未能抵消其他小麦面积的下降。
- 预计油菜籽面积将下降，但大豆面积将增加。
- 豆类作物和特殊作物的面积将增加，产量也将大幅上升。
不过，预计加拿大大多数主要农作物的价格将比去年同期下降。
U.S. Market Progress 2024
One of the biggest issues facing U.S. growers in recent months has been declining commodity prices, which are depressing farm incomes and offsetting any positive effects from lower input prices. In addition, reduced levels of government support are also having an impact on farm incomes. For 2024, the USDA expects farm income to be down by 4.4% to $140.0 billion, driven by a reduction in farm cash receipts.
Within this, total crop receipts are forecast to fall by 10.0% in 2024, led by declines for maize (-20.0%) and soybeans (-14.6%) which are being impacted by lower prices offsetting higher sold quantities. Net farm income in 2024 is also expected to be impacted by lower direct government payments, which are forecast to fall by 15.1% from 2023. In contrast to previous estimations, total production expenses are projected to decline by 1.1% in 2024. Expenditure on pesticides is currently forecast to fall by 10.4%, with seed purchases projected to decline by 0.4%. Expenditure on fertilizers, lime and soil conditioners is expected to decrease by 9.7%.
In Canada, total crop production in 2024/25 is projected to increase by 1.8% to 93.856 million tonnes. Grains and oilseeds production is estimated to rise by 0.2% to 87.015 million tonnes, while pulses and special crops production is expected to grow by 29.5% to 6.841 million tonnes. The outlook for crop prices is generally negative, with declines forecast in 2024/25 for durum wheat (-23.5%), barley (-9.2%), maize (-2.8%), oats (-9.6%), canola (-11.2%) and soybeans (-12.6%), while prices for non-durum wheat (+4.4%) are expected to increase.
2023 年，受农用化学品价格低迷的影响，北美作物保护市场价值名义上下降 2.4% 至 $123.79 亿美元，草甘膦价格在某些情况下估计比上一年低约 25%。此外，大豆和棉花种植面积减少也产生了负面影响。这在一定程度上被产量略有增加所抵消，西部天气条件改善，虫害压力较大，尽管玉米带的干旱是一个问题。在加拿大，干旱天气也阻碍了市场的发展。对于 2024 年，大宗商品价格下跌、某些主要作物种植面积减少（尤其是美国的玉米和加拿大的油菜）以及对持续干旱天气条件的预期等负面影响表明，这种负面势头可能会在本农业年度持续下去。
根据初步估计，北美作物保护市场的价值预计在 2024 年名义上下降 5.5% 至 $117.01 亿美元。
展望未来，近期的发展预计将影响 2025 年及以后美国的农作物保护市场。这些法律决定预计将对该国的分销链和产品供应产生重大影响。
Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Investigation: This investigation revolves around concerns over antidumping and countervailing of 2,4-D into the U.S. from China and India. While still ongoing, with final determinations from the International Trade Commission (ITC) expected on 9 January 2025, a preliminary determination has recommended the imposing of countervailing rates on imports of 2,4-D. The case is based on Corteva’s petition that imports of 2,4-D from certain companies in these countries were being offered at subsidised and heavily discounted rates. These countervailing rates would lead to significant tariffs being placed on imports of 2,4-D from these destinations, with expectations that this would greatly reduce the competitive environment and resultant price pressure on domestic material, with the tariffs being such that imports could effectively be priced out of the market. While this can be expected to protect against price erosion caused by a glut of low-priced imported material as has been the case in recent years, this coupled with the current low commodity price environment can be expected to exert further pressure on grower incomes in the country.
Crop Inputs Antitrust Litigation Case Dismissed: This case involved litigation by several plaintiffs involved in the direct and indirect purchasing of crop inputs (specifically seeds and crop protection chemicals) citing an ‘alleged conspiracy to restrain trade across three distribution levels for all crop inputs sold in the country’. If successful, this action had the potential to cause significant disruption to the established crop input distribution chain in the U.S., leading to the cessation of loyalty programs and potentially opening up the market to alternative suppliers, notably e-retailer platforms. This then had the potential to lead to increased competition and subsequent price erosion for both seeds and crop protection chemicals in the U.S. market. However, the dismissal of the case can be expected to lead to the resumption of the established distribution chain in the U.S.
下图显示了根据美国农业部经济研究服务部的预测，2024 年至 2025 年美国农场运营成本的预期差异。可以看出，预计 2025 年燃料和利息的运营成本将下降，但预计化学品和种子方面的支出将增加。
据美国农业部称，预计 2024 财年（10 月至 9 月）美国农业贸易逆差将达到 $305 亿美元。尽管这比 5 月份的预测低了 $15 亿美元，但与上一年的赤字相比，赤字扩大了 $134 亿美元。预计 2025 财年美国农业贸易逆差将进一步增加，达到创纪录的 $425 亿美元。
就农作物面积而言，可以预期美国玉米种植面积将反弹，而大豆种植面积将下降，这主要是由于该国大豆产量高、库存利用率低，导致供应量高，随后价格下跌。基于过去两年的高增长，棉花种植面积也预计会下降。对于加拿大来说，小麦种植面积预计将增加，从 2024 年的低点反弹，而油菜籽种植面积也有望增加，以满足高压榨需求。
欧洲市场回顾
关键因素
- 欧盟27国农作物种植面积变化较大，但产量受天气影响较为明显：
- 软小麦面积预计减少 5.5%，但玉米面积增加 5.0%；然而，预计产量将受到不利天气条件的阻碍。
- 预计 2024 年油籽面积将下降 2.7%，其中油菜籽面积将下降 8.8%。
- 向日葵面积预计增加2.2%，但产量下降超过6%。
- 虽然条件有利于害虫的发展，但田间进入对于西欧许多地区的种植者来说一直是一个重大问题。
- 预计德国粮食产量将降至2018年干旱收成以来的最低水平。
- 天气状况继续对欧洲种植者构成挑战：
- 南欧和东欧夏季非常炎热，影响玉米和向日葵等夏季作物。
- 西欧和北欧天气十分潮湿，导致大面积倒伏，谷物质量下降。
- 最近，中欧和东欧遭遇极端降雨和洪水，影响了收成并导致农作物受损。
- 俄罗斯恶劣天气影响大面积冬小麦和春小麦。
- 为应对极端天气，五个地区已宣布进入紧急状态。最近的强降雨导致水涝和农作物受损。
- 许多南部地区正遭受干旱的负面影响。
预计欧洲粮食产量为1.32亿吨，比上年减少10%。
2024 年第三季度市场进展
北欧冬小麦收割工作正在好坏参半的条件下完成，天气状况预计将严重影响几个国家的产量，尤其是英国、法国、比利时和意大利；不过，天气状况比预想的要好，预计其他国家的产量将更为可观，包括西班牙、罗马尼亚和保加利亚。相反，炎热干燥的天气目前正在影响东欧和南欧部分地区的玉米作物，尤其是罗马尼亚、匈牙利、希腊和保加利亚。
在法国，秸秆谷物产量估计为 3870 万吨，是 40 年来最低的产量之一，单产较去年大幅下降。对于德国，预计 2024 年小麦总种植面积将减少 9.4%，但产量预计将下降约 13%。
在乌克兰，西部地区天气状况良好，预计产量将大幅增长；然而，该国东部和南部地区受到干旱天气和与俄罗斯持续冲突的影响。对于俄罗斯来说，严霜影响了冬小麦产量，但目前春小麦作物的生长条件更为有利。
近几个月南欧和东欧普遍的炎热干燥天气预计也会影响其他作物，这些地区的许多葡萄园的病害压力低于正常水平：例如，意大利的主要葡萄酒产区几乎没有出现白粉病、霜霉病和灰霉病等显著病害。这显然有利于产量和作物质量，但限制了杀菌剂的应用潜力，被认为对这些国家作物保护市场的发展总体不利。
尽管在过去 12-18 个月中，产品库存问题一直是许多地区农作物保护产品供应面临的重大问题，但有传闻表明，欧洲的情况正在显著缓解。采购模式正转向更及时的方式，摆脱疫情后因产品供应不确定性而变得更加普遍的高水平预购。
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