随着农业企业为迎接下一轮供应链挑战做好准备，化肥成本压力正从物流转向投入品。
2026年七月8日 While consumers are already feeling higher food prices tied to transportation and logistics, fertilizer markets may represent the next major cost challenge for agriculture.
Oxford Economics projects fertilizer prices could climb more than 30% this year as geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to pressure global supply. The firm’s report also projects urea prices are expected to rise even faster.
“However, the impact across countries and crops will vary while historically low fertilizer affordability, as measured by the grains-to-fertilizer price ratio, will result in a bigger impact on the agriculture sector than otherwise in terms of yields and margins,” wrote Lead Economist Kiran Ahmed in the firm’s latest outlook.
肥料协会 (TFI) is seeing similar concerns. Corey Rosenbusch, President and CEO of TFI, said growers need better visibility into global fertilizer markets because international supply disruptions increasingly influence domestic fertilizer pricing.
“They need transparency. They need to understand how global fertilizer supply and demand works, and why it’s impacting their price in Illinois,” Rosenbusch said, in a recent AgriBusiness Global Report.
For agricultural retailers and distributors, however, the most significant impacts may still lie ahead.
“The fertilizer piece is the next hit,” said Frank Kenney, Vice President of Go-to-Market Strategy and Enablement at Cleo. “Many of the larger agricultural companies had already locked in their 2026 fertilizer costs before this latest spike moved through the market.”
That purchasing lag creates a delayed risk that could extend well into the next 12 to 18 months. Because fertilizer is often purchased months before planting, supply disruptions can continue affecting growers and consumers long after geopolitical events appear to stabilize. “The price was already paid somewhere in the chain,” Kenney said. “Someone must carry it.”
While large retailers, cooperatives, and farming operations often have the purchasing power to hedge fertilizer costs or pre-book inventory months in advance. Smaller retailers and independent growers generally have less flexibility.
“When fertilizer moves from $350 or $400 a ton to $600, $900 or more, the smaller guys get hit hardest,” Kenney said. “Agricultural retailers and distributors will be dealing with customers that have very different levels of financial flexibility.”
Procurement Becomes a Competitive Advantage
Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers remain particularly exposed because of their dependence on global production regions and shipping routes affected by geopolitical uncertainty.
“Half of the sulfur traded in the world comes through the Strait (of Hormuz),” said Rosenbusch, noting sulfur is a key raw material used to manufacture phosphate fertilizers such as MAP and DAP.
Kenney adds that the issue goes beyond price.
“It becomes a question of how much supply is available, when it can move, who has already locked it in, and who is left trying to buy closer to the season,” Kenney says.
Rather than simply monitoring fertilizer prices, Kenney recommends agribusinesses gain greater visibility into supplier commitments, shipment timing, regional inventories, and alternative sourcing options before purchasing decisions become constrained by market conditions.
Supply Chain Effects Extend Beyond Fertilizer
The fertilizer market is only one piece of a broader supply chain equation.
Kenney notes that transportation costs are already increasing due to higher fuel prices, freight availability, and labor expenses, particularly for fresh produce that depends on refrigerated transportation.
“Those costs work their way into what gets planted and what gets passed through,” Kenney says.
Visibility Becomes Critical
After several years of supply chain disruption, Kenney believes agribusinesses must focus less on collecting more data and more on connecting the information they already have.
He recommends monitoring fertilizer pricing, fuel costs, freight capacity, supplier commitments, shipment delays, inventory levels, open purchase orders, and regional product availability. Technologies such as AI and automation can help organizations identify patterns earlier and understand how disruptions will affect inventory, transportation, customer commitments, and margins before they become operational problems.
“The organizations that can connect those dots and respond early will be in a much better position to manage through whatever comes next,” he says.
Innovation Remains a Long-Term Priority
While the industry navigates immediate supply chain uncertainty, fertilizer manufacturers are also investing in innovation aimed at improving nutrient efficiency and long-term resilience.
For instance, the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) Innovation Hub recently released 肥料创新释放：催化植物营养领域的变革性行动, introducing what it describes as the industry’s first standardized Fertilizer Industry Innovation Benchmark. The benchmark enables organizations to measure their innovation performance against verified industry averages and track progress over time.
“Advances in plant nutrition have the potential to deliver outsized benefits — from improving nutrient use efficiency and climate performance to building more resilient, nutritious food systems,” said IFA CEO and Director General Alzbeta Klein. “This report equips the industry with the data and insight needed to make informed decisions and accelerate action.”
In the near term, agribusinesses are preparing for higher input costs, constrained supplies, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, but in the longer term, companies are investing in technologies and innovation that can improve efficiency, strengthen resilience, and help growers produce more with fewer inputs.
立即获取时事通讯！
