FAO Examines Food Production Through 2019

Posted by Matt Hopkins|10 August 2010

The global food outlook has takes a rollercoaster ride during the past few years. The world has seen record grain stocks earlier this decade followed by food riots followed by wholesale hording once again. A series of 100-year droughts have plagued several parts of the world, including last year in Argentina and this year in Russia.

Adding to the turmoil is the worst global economy since the 1930s and wildly fluctuating commodity prices, especially oil. By and large, 2010 has ushered in a period of reasonable stability in commodity prices, and analysts expect modest gains in production, commodity prices, and consumption through the next decade, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s newest report, “Agricultural Outlook, 2010-2019”.

Much of the growth in production is expected to be generated by developing countries. Least-developed countries (LDCs) have shown the largest percentage growth in production, consumption, and import trends. Brazil is projected to be the fastest growing agriculture producer with about 40% growth by 2019 compared to a 2007-’09 base period. Russia and Ukraine 26% and 29%, respectively. China is expected to escalate production 26% during the same period, and India could expand its capacity 21%.

On average, BRIC countries are expected to expand food production about 27%, while LDCs are expected to expand production 33%. Australia is projected to post strong gains, and the US and Canada is expected to grow 10% to 15% by 2019 using the same 2007-’09 base period. Comparatively, EU member states will grow about 4%.

Editor’s note: See the September issue for more on the FAO’s Outlook, including consumption trends and commodity price predictions. Or download the 88-page version of the report at the FAO website.