2009 Could Be A Pleasant Surprise
20 January 2009 Despite the doom and gloom in the media about global macroeconomics, constricting credit, free-falling commodity prices and emasculated demand for crop protection products, first-quarter business remains strong.
According to a Farm Chemicals International online poll, almost half of respondents say they expect their first-quarter business to finish as good or better than last year. Almost 40% of the 110 respondents say business will be worse than last year, but still healthy. Just 12.7% say they are worried about their sales and revenue.
This is great news for crop protection business as many industry analysts expect the first quarter of 2009 to have the softest demand. Growers are waiting to see how crop prices might outprice their input costs, and they are using as little fertilizers and crop protection products as they can to get by. The fact that first-quarter sentiments are strong means that good things are ahead for the rest of the year.
Interestingly, some last year’s profits were fueled by one-time circumstances, such as the Olymic Games and high-price commodities. So the fact that 40% say sales are lower than last year but still healthy is not surprising. It also means that 87% of survey takers are consider agrochemical markets healthy in the first quarter and subsequently the rest of 2009.
See our February issue of FCI for our annual 2009 outlook on crop protection, biotechnology and fertilizers. And send me your thoughts about business in 2009 at [email protected].
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