Is Abnormal the New Normal in U.S. Agriculture?
U.S. ag retailers and their grower-customers across the country are gearing up for the 2020 growing season, writes Eric Sfiligoj at CropLife. Based upon conversations I’ve had with numerous industry people at trade shows and events this winter, most of them are hoping this year will bring a measure of certainty back to the agricultural marketplace — especially considering how much uncertainty has seemed to rule the day through much of the past two growing seasons.
What I’ve been hearing has been along the lines of, “I know everyone today talks about ‘the new normal.’ I would just like to be able to use the word ‘normal’ to describe the year without adding a ‘but’ at the end of it.”
For sure, 2019 was very abnormal as agricultural years go. In more than 20 years of covering the ag retail marketplace, last year had a host of events that dominated the headlines like I’ve never seen — millions of prevent plant acres, the U.S.-China trade dispute, a threatened trade dispute with Mexico (which was avoided, thankfully), and two government bailout packages to help U.S. growers financially. In the end, given all these abnormal market events, it’s amazing agricultural revenues were as strong as they ended up when all the year-end numbers were tallied up.
So, what do the tea leaves say about how the 2020 growing season might play out? As with most things in life, there are positive and negative early indicators.
Regarding the topic of agricultural trade, there is very positive news that 2020 might be more normal than abnormal — at least closer to home. In late January, President Donald Trump signed the long-debated U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This legislation guarantees that agricultural goods from America can continue to move into the country’s North American neighbors with zero tariffs attached to them.
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