Australian Sugar Cane Comes Up Short
The 2006/07 sugar cane harvest in Australia has been revised down to 4.95 million metric tons (MMT) due to a smut outbreak and the effects of tropical cyclone Larry, according to the US Deparment of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
The sugar industry was recently buoyed by improved prices and an end to the long-term drought. However, cyclone Larry and the sugar smut outbreak in June have constrained production, while long-term problems such as urban encroachment, mill closure, and a forecast price decline continue to place downward pressure on the cane planted area.
USDA-FAS predicts lower production and exports in 2006/07, driven by reduced cane area and commercial cane sugar (CCS) content. The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) have lowered their expectations further despite increasing the projected cane area for 2006/07. ABARE’s forecast of increased cane area and reduced raw sugar production appears to rely on historically low CCS content in the 2006/07 crop.