China: Winter Has Mixed Effect
12 February 2008 China’s worst winter storm in 40 years crippled transportation and limited power for much of the country. In addition, many crops were damaged or destroyed either in the fields or in transit, creating food shortages in stores and price increases of over 100% in some of the 12 Southern provinces hit hardest.
For wheat, because cross-winter grain crops are mainly in the north of the Yellow and Huai rivers, has not been affected much. Official reports by the Ministry of Agriculture and provincial authorities, Henan and Hubei, China’s major wheat belt, will not be adversely impacted. In fact, better soil moisture is optimal in this stage of the harvest and the lower temperatures are advantageous to disease and pest controls. As the snows melt, moisture levels will improve, but so will hte likelihood of pests and diseases.
For cotton, no significant impact to the crop or planted areas in Shandong, Hebei, or Jiangsu is expected. However, the textile industry could face shortages due to transportation constraints. Northern Anhui province, China’s textile capital, is one of the heaviest hit provinces.
Oilseeds in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River have been significantly affected by the snow. The overall impact on grain production is still pending, as spring planting has not yet started.
There is expected to be serious damage to the spring 2008 canola crop. While reports suggest that temperatures in the main central China growing area did not drop to winterkill levels long enough to cause damage, the majority of the growing areas have physical damage to the plants due to rain, sleet, snow, and ice. Severe flooding later in the winter could further impact the affected locations.
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