Global Rice Sets Record For Fourth Year
30 December 2008 According to Nathan Childs, senior rice market analyst, USDA’s Economic Research Service, speaking at the USA Rice Outlook Conference in Little Rock, Arkansas, US, the world produced a record rice crop for the fourth year in a row. Childs attributed the increase to greater area, rather than higher yields.
China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Thailand, and Cambodia all expanded acreage this season, and are all projected to harvest larger crops. As a result of a cyclone striking around May 1, Burma’s crop is expected to be smaller, as is that of Iran and Iraq due to drought, and in the EU due to insufficient water.
Although a smaller crop is expected for Vietnam, it is still expected to boost exports in 2009, along with China, Egypt, and Pakistan. “Pakistan’s exports will be a record by a large margin,” predicted Childs. “Bangladesh is expected to export 4 million tons in 2009. That’s a little below Vietnam. India’s exports have declined because of a ban on exports. But India has rice and could move rice into the market.”
Describing importer forecasts, Childs said: “Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and the Western Hemisphere will take more rice. Indonesia, once the largest importer of rice in the world, has reduced imports substantially in recent years, but we expect them to increase imports somewhat in 2009. We don’t see them as being self-sufficient in rice.”
Childs forecasts record global consumption, as well, due to larger world populations and the global economic slowdown, in which, he said: “consumers could shift away from higher priced foods like meat, fruits and vegetable back to rice.”
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