Growing Global
12 December 2008 In many parts of the world, the advancing popularity of biofuels and the high grain prices have pushed cotton production to the background. Luckily, advances such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton and the increasingly high reputation given to organics are keeping cotton profitable.
GM Grows
Many of the world’s largest cotton-producing areas, such as the US, China, India, and Argentina, were quick to adopt Bt cotton after its introduction to the market over a decade ago. India — a country that used to produce some of the world’s lowest cotton yields — owes a lot to Bt cotton. Grower income increased by up to US $250 or more per hectare, according to ISAAA (International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications), with increased yields by up to 50%. Nine out of 10 Indian growers replant Bt cotton year-on-year, with the country gaining 63% genetically modified (GM) cotton in 2007 for a total of 6.2 million hectares (Ha) under Bt cotton.
China increased Bt cotton production by 0.3 million Ha to total 3.8 million Ha — 69% of China’s total cotton area, reports ISAAA. Bt cotton has increased yields in the country by up to 10%, with income gains for Chinese growers an average of US $220/Ha — totalling over $800 million nationally.
| GM Cotton Countries | ||
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | France | Portugal |
| Australia | Germany | Romania |
| Brazil | Honduras | Slovakia |
| Canada | India | South Africa |
| Chile | Mexico | Spain |
| China | Paraguay | United States |
| Colombia | Philippines | Uruguay |
| Czech Republic | Poland | |
|
Since its inception in the mid-1990s, Bt cotton has spread across the globe. Source: ISAAA. |
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A Boom In Brazil?
Forecast to produce a record crop in 2007/08 at 7.1 million bales on 1.15 million Ha, Brazilian cotton prospects are excellent with a near record yield projected at 1,363 kg/Ha. Yields continue to increase and roughly half of the country’s cotton is genetically modified.
Mato Grosso is Brazil’s largest cotton-producing state, with approximately 52% of output; Bahia accounts for 31% and Goias for 6% of the total crop. Area planted to cotton is likely to decrease due to rotation with soybean crops, as one well-fertilized cotton crop can provide a season or two of good soybean yields. However, the government’s policy of providing cotton producers with a minimum price should help to keep cotton area in 2008/09 only slightly less than, if not the same as this season. In Mato Grosso, cotton commitments are down, as cotton is the third choice behind soy and corn. Western Bahia, which produces good quality cotton, should increase cotton area next season, but if corn and soy prices stay high, cotton commitments 2008 to 2010 will go down.
Organic Fiber Fares Well
Global organic cotton production increased 53% from 2005/06 to 2006/07, according toOrganic Exchange, which expects demand for organic cotton products to grow by an average annual rate of 110% from 2006 to 2008. As demand continues to rise worldwide, so should organic production; Organic Exchange predicts a 25% to 55% increase in production in 2007/08.
The ability to increase organic cotton production globally will depend much upon growers’ proficiency at pest and weed management, soil fertility, and defoliation practices in accordance with organic requirements.
The Year Ahead
In general, world cotton production for 2007/08 is down 4% from the season before, projected at 25.7 million tons. Mill use is forecast at 27.2 million tons, however — a 2% increase over last season. Higher Chinese imports will drive higher exports from the US, India, and Brazil, while Uzbekistan, Australia, and Africa’s CFA (Central African franc) zone will see reduced exports.
The 2008/09 global production is estimated at 26.9 million tons — a 5% increase. World mill use shows a very slight increase to 27.5 million tons. The approximate 1% increase could result in world cotton stocks declining to as low as 10.7 million tons. The highest production increases are expected to come from China and India, with Pakistan remaining stable and the US declining.
Trade is forecast to remain stable at 8.7 million tons. Higher cotton prices for 2007/08 could stabilize for the following season, further contributing to the 5% decrease in world stocks.
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