India: Another Cotton Record Within Reach
27 May 2008 If weather conditions hold up, India’s 2008/09 (August/July) cotton production should see a slight increase, notching a sixth consecutive year of record production in the country.
The current forecast from the US Dept. of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS) predicts a 25.4 million bale harvest driven by slightly increased planting area and consistent yields.
The cotton area in 2008/09 is forecast to increase slightly to a record 9.7 million hectares (Ha) due to firm cotton prices and record yields. The latest cotton arrival estimates indicate that 2007/08 production will reach 25 million bales from 9.5 million hectares.
Indian cotton production has more than doubled in the past six years, from 10.6 million bales in 2002/03 to 25 million bales in 2007/08. During that time, yields have nearly doubled from 302 kg per Ha in 2002/03 to 571 kg per Ha in 2007/08. However, these figures are still below the world average yield, indicating room for future growth.
Interestingly, the presence of genetically modified Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) seed, which has been credited for much of the country’s improved performance, is now leading to increased imports of some cotton. Industry sources report that since most of the Bt hybrids varieties in the country are medium and long staple cotton (26 to 32 mm), there is a growing shortage of domestic cotton of short staple (below 22 mm) and extra long staple (35 mm and above). If this varietal trend continues, the domestic textile industry may have to augment their short staple cotton requirements through imports, which they are already forced to do for extra long staple cotton.
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