INDIA: Wheat Production Strong, Threatened By Stem Rust
1 February 2007 Favorable weather and expanded area could lead to 74 million tons of wheat produced in India, though stem rust disease poses a threat to the crop, according to local reports.
"Production may cross 74 million tons if temperatures do not rise in February and March," said Agricultural Commissioner Narendra Bahadur Singh. "An additional one million hectares have been brought under wheat sowing this year," he added.
However, other reports hold that a threat may be on the way in the form of stem rust disease. Wind models indicate that a new form of stem rust, a virulent wheat disease now infecting wheat in Yemen, could propagate itself to the east and threaten crops in India and Pakistan.
The Global Rust Initiative (GRI) and the US Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) have confirmed conclusively the existence of the disease in Yemen. There is also evidence that the disease has already spread to Sudan, but more tests are needed to confirm this.
The wind models plotted by geographic information system (GIS) specialists have predicted that if the fungus crossed from eastern Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, it could easily spread to the vast wheat growing areas of North Africa, West Asia, Pakistan, and India. If the rust threat is not controlled, it would have a major impact on food security, especially since global wheat stocks are at a historic low level.
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