Kenya: Coffee To Hit Historic Low

A 22% drop in Kenyan coffee production is resulting in an historic low production total for 2007/08 of an estimated 40,000 tons, according to the US Dept. of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (a href=”http://www.fas.usda.gov/scripts/gd.asp?ID=146294608″>USDA-FAS).

The main culprits for the decline have been the presence of Coffee Berry Disease (CBD), competition from Vietnam and other producers, market glut, market liberalization problems, co-operative management inefficiencies, high costs of production, and poor husbandry practices among smallholders.

A prolonged and intense cold weather spell brought a severe CBD attack. West of the Rift Valley, the cold weather was accompanied by continuous rains, depressing the capacity of the coffee bushes to flower. These weather conditions favored the proliferation of CBD, resulting in huge late crop losses. A study by the Coffee Research Foundation on behalf of the Kenya Coffee Traders Association and the World Bank reported a crop loss of up to 80% in some parts of the upper zones of Embu, Kirinyaga, and Nyeri.

However, USDA-FAS forecasts a near 30% increase for 2008/09 as a consequence of the coffee biennial bearing cycles.

The costs of spraying the traditional coffee varieties (usually with copper based fungicides) have tripled within the past year. This will jeopardize crop protection in the coming year and increase demand for disease resistant planting materials.

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