Pakistan: Cotton Production In Decline
22 January 2008 Forecasts of Pakistan’s cotton production for 2007/08 have been lowered by 13%, from 10.4 million bales to 8.75 million bales, by the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
The area planted to cotton was lower than targeted, and the crop was severely damaged by the cotton leaf curl virus (LCV) and pesticide-resistant mealy bugs. In addition, difficult weather conditions hurt the crop’s boll size and weight. Illegal Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton varieties, which were not designed for Pakistan’s local conditions, also affected the production and quality of this year’s crop. Consequently, Pakistan’s import forecast has been increased based on the latest arrivals registered in-country. Demand for U.S. extra long staple (ELS) and upland cotton is strong as Pakistan’s textile industry struggles to remain competitive in world markets.
Production
USDA-FAS now estimates the size of Pakistan’s 2007/08 cotton crop to be 1.904 million metric tons (MMT), compared to earlier forecasts of 2.265 MMT, with much of the decline coming in the important cotton belts of Punjab and Sindh.
Leaf curl virus (LCV) has become endemic in Pakistan, affecting over 70% of this year’s crop, stated USDA-FAS. While scientists focus on developing an effective virus resistant variety, the best current control is the application of pesticides against the insect vector of the virus.
In addition, the past two years have seen a growing invasion of mealy bugs. The insect attacked 12% of last year’s crop and 30% to 35% of the 2007 crop. The illegal Bt cotton varieties planted in about 40% of Pakistan’s cotton, which were designed to help crops resist chewing insects like the cotton bollworm, have had no effect on the mealy bug, a sucking insect. The best control of mealy bugs is achieved by conventional pesticides, but the price of pesticides to fight mealy bugs and the LCV insect vector nearly doubled in 2007 and supplies are low.
Cotton Arrivals And Trade
As of January 1, cotton arrivals are 17.75% lower compared with arrivals during the corresponding period last year. Total unsold stock with ginners remains at 1.49 million bales, compared to 1.61 million bales for last year. Prices are expected to rise as production is insufficient to meet Pakistan’s consumption requirement of 12.33 million bales.
Cotton imports are projected to remain strong. Local supply versus consumption has generated a shortfall of about 3.5 million bales, of which 2 million bales will be of short and medium staple cotton. Between July and October 2007, millers and traders imported 0.873 million bales, compared to 0.375 million bales in the same period of 2006. The domestic textile industry requires the import of all grades of cotton, including long and medium staple varieties from the U.S. Pakistan also remains among the top importers of U.S. Pima cotton.
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