Poland Down Compared To 2006
22 June 2006 Delays to Spring plantings have lowered estimates for Polish agriculture compared to 2005, according to the Main Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) in its mid-May crop evaluation results.
With current weather patterns taken into account, the Ministry of Agriculture recently estimated Poland’s total 2006 grain crop at 26.2 million metric tons (MMT), or 3% lower than last year’s crop of nearly 27 MMT. This forecast is close to the latest Institute of Agricultural Economics forecast of 26.0 to 26.5 MMT and slightly lower than Ag/Warsaw’s current estimate of 27 MMT, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
Current weather developments are favorable for grains and oilseeds, and are partly compensating for the three-week delay in spring weather. Relatively low temperatures with sufficient moisture in May and early June were ideal for the development of most crops after poor conditions last fall and an unusually long and severe winter.
According to GUS, final winter losses are estimated higher than a year ago. As a result of winter kill, 86,400 hectares (Ha) of all grains (nearly 2% of total winter grain) had to be plowed under due to winter-kill. A year ago, that acreage was only 20,200 Ha or about 0.4% of total winter grain acreage. Per crop losses are estimated as follows:
- Wheat: 29,200 Ha (7,900 in 2005)
- Rye: 20,600 Ha (4,000 in 2005)
- Winter barley: 7,600 Ha (800 in 2005)
- Triticale: 27,800 Ha (7,400 in 2005)
- Canola: 15,000 Ha (6,400 in 2005>
GUS estimates 2006 grain acreage at slightly below 8 million Ha, slightly more than a year ago. That assumes smaller winter grain planting and larger spring planting. Spring planting was reported on 3.4 million Ha, 2.2% more than last year. Sugar beet area is estimated as 2.4% larger than last year. Total canola acreage will be smaller than last year’s high acreage. Winter canola planting was smaller due to less favorable conditions, higher winter losses, and smaller spring planting due to delayed spring weather.
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