Slight Soy Increase Projected For Brazil

Matt Hopkins Posted by Matt Hopkins|21 October 2008

The National Crop Supply Agency (CONAB), in its first estimates of Brazil’s 2008/09 soybean crop, has projected a record 60.10-61.27 million metric tons (mmt), up from last season’s 60.02 mmt, said the Agriculture Ministry. Estimated production will range from steady to 2.1% higher than last year, while corn production will fall by 4.5%-6.1%. Area planted to soybeans is expected to rise to 21.5-21.9 million hectares (Ha), up 1.3%-3.2% from last year’s 21.3 million Ha. Private Brazilian forecasts are higher than CONAB’s production estimate, which is lower than the US Department of Agriculture’s most recent Brazilian crop estimate of 62.5 million tons.

While higher production costs for corn are expected to translate into more land for soybeans, soybean acres could be limited by high fertilizer prices and lower soybean prices. In turn, this could result in reduced fertilizer usage, limiting yields.