Stacking the Deck
17 June 2008 In some ways, it is clear that it has. The types and number of agrochemicals used in fields has decreased, and research into new molecules has shifted more towards research into new traits. Now, as stacked-trait varieties become more sophisticated, there will be varieties with in-seed protection from several insect types as well as resistance to multiple products (see the item on Dow‘s SmartStax), such as glyphosate and glufosinate.
Of course, there will still be a need for new products, particularly herbicides, no matter how sophisticated seed gets. But how will discovery be affected? Currently, if resistance were not an issue, there would be little reason for growers of Roundup Ready corn or soybeans to use herbicides besides glyphosate in any large amount.
Is the seed forcing the farmer’s hand? It may be. If a hybrid confers resistance to three different herbicides, it stands to reason that farmers will stick to those three products – and manage resistance while doing so. That means that any new molecules, no matter how efficacious or environmentally friendly – will have a difficult time getting any traction in the market unless (or until) the seed catches up. A blockbuster molecule may not have the chance to be a blockbuster on its own, but only as part of the integrated management system that includes seed with resistance to it.
As always, agrochemicals will still be needed. But as biotech seed defines the set of products that farmers will use, any products which are not included in that system will face a nearly impenetrable market. If this means that new product launches will be on hold until the seed resistance is developed along with it, we could see an even bigger drag on the already bogged down discovery process.
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