The 2022 Outlook for U.S. Agriculture From USDA’s Chief Economist
Speaking on Thursday at USDA’s virtual Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer provided a broad outlook for U.S. agriculture. Farm Policy News provides an overview of key aspects of Dr. Meyer’s presentation.
In his speech Thursday, Dr. Meyer noted that, “Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 ended with record exports ($172.2B) based on very strong commodity prices and record exports supported by the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. FY2022 is looking to also be a record year. This strength is reflected in USDA’s revised forecast for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2022, which was released today with exports now forecast at a record $183.5 billion, or an increase of over $11.3 billion from FY 2021.”
However, Dr. Meyer cautioned that, “There are other global uncertainties that could affect the U.S. agricultural trade forecast in 2022. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have global economic and trade implications. Together the two countries account for almost a quarter of global grain exports. Although we may expect global and regional grain markets to reorient to alternative suppliers and markets which may limit direct effects on U.S. agricultural exports, short-term broader macro effects would reverberate through the global economy depending on the severity and duration of the conflict. Additionally, interlinkages through fertilizer and energy markets could have knock-on effects for agricultural producers across the world.”
“The U.S.-China trade relationship will also be a focus, given the importance of this market for U.S. agriculture,” Dr. Meyer added.
Turning to acreage prospects, Dr. Meyer explained that, “Combined corn and soybean area is forecast at 180.0 million acres, below the historical high of 180.6 million planted in 2021.
Read more at Farm Policy News.
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