USDA Predicts 8 Million-Bale Cotton Deficit
22 July 2008 In what would be the largest such shortfall since 1993/94, the most recent USDA forecast for 2008/09 expects global cotton consumption to exceed the season’s new supply of cotton by 8 million bales.
Global cotton mill use is projected by USDA to rise only slightly in 2008-09, as world GDP growth slows through calendar 2009. New supplies – expected to decline 4.5 million bales to 117.9 million in 2008/09 – will widen the gap for a second year in a row. Consumption is forecast at 125.9 million bales.
The global reduction in new supplies is due primarily to a forecast drop in production of more than 5 million bales in the US for 2008/09. Chinese cotton consumption continues to exceed new supplies, with a gap of 15.5 million bales projected for 2008/09, compared with an estimated 14.2 million in 2007/08.
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