草甘膦的大反弹:草甘膦市场更新

草甘膦经历了有趣的几年。草甘膦的全球价值从 2008 年异常创纪录的一年下降到 2010 年的 $65 亿,从其高峰期的 $4 亿下降。

相比之下,从 2008 年到 2011 年,其他主要活性物质的全球价值稳步增长。例如,嘧菌酯自 2008 年以来全球价值增长了约 33%。其他活性物质的增长较为温和,但它们在全球价值中保持了积极的上升趋势价值。
The most troubling reality to glyphosate’s doldrums is that demand has been on the steady climb during its price slump. So volume sales have risen while profits have declined.

But it appears that glyphosate’s lackluster performance is at a welcomed end. Global value began a slight upward trend last year, and the rise in value is expected to continue in 2012.  

草甘膦飞速增长背后的故事相当简单:2008 年的生产不足导致价值链大幅下降,并在供应与不断增长的需求之间留下巨大的不平等。由于制造商在 2008 年底和 2009 年对价格飙升和库存减少做出反应,供应过剩淹没了价值链,降低了价格并鼓励分销商和贸易商积压库存。因此,大量上线的新供应没有买家。

“The crash came quicker than the increase, and we’ve been dealing with the hangover ever since,” Monsanto Global Glyphosate Lead Dean Hendrickson said at the FCI Trade Summit in Miami in August. “But we are starting to see things uptick.”

The soft rebound during the past two years is a bit more complicated. At least some of the explanation lies with the world’s largest manufacturer. Monsanto will produce more than half of the world’s glyphosate supply in 2012, and it is priced at less than one-third of its peak of $8.05 per liter in 2008. Given this, it’s no surprise more that more than 40% of glyphosate’s global value crumbled under the weight of market pressures.

While Monsanto’s price points have been in line with the market for the most part, it has continued to lower its price in the United States, the world’s largest consumer, steadily since 2009. Generic producers began to raise prices beginning in 2010, and they have risen slowly since then.

孟山都公司继续降低其在美国的价格,几乎与仿制药的价格保持一致。获得市场份额的战略决策影响了全球价值。

在 FCI 十月刊中阅读更多关于草甘膦的信息。