AMVAC’s Bob Trogele: Top 11 Predictions Driving the Global Crop Inputs Industry in 2020

AgriBusiness Global Staff By AgriBusiness Global Staff|10 March 2020

Editor’s Note: Bob Trogele, Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President at AMVAC and a member of the AgriBusiness Global Advisory Board, offers his thoughts on the factors that will influence the crop inputs industry in 2020:

  1. Higher commodity prices result as inventory declines for U.S. producers as Chinese demand favors U.S. farming. This will have a neutral to negative impact for Brazil and Argentina.
  2. Dollar looks stable to declining and is positive for trading agricultural commodities as global trading tensions become milder.
  3. The number of new trade deals — USMCA, Brazil-EU, US-Japan, etc. — supports commodity pricing as tariffs come down and potentially drive demand. China and India suppliers benefit from reduced tensions.
  4. Consolidation at the producer level drives retail restructuring and consolidation, further changing business models at all service levels. U.S. consolidation at the supplier level is still needed but will be on hold for 2020 as the market recovers on trade and demand.
  5. Retailers and producers continue going across borders, especially with acquisitions or alliances.
  6. Technological advances continue at a rapid rate opening future value-added opportunities.
  7. Start-ups continue and flourish as investors flock into the newer technologies betting on the above, especially in the disruptor areas of robotics, water management, precision agriculture and application, gene editing, and biologicals, including soil health. Artificial intelligence is in the near-distant future.
  8. EU politicians want to reduce/eliminate chemical solutions and demand at the same time carbon neutral entities (see BASF/BAYER; both have corporate commitment to be carbon neutral by 2030). This opens the space for the biological solutions but puts pressure on foreign exporters of produce and regulatory authorities to adjust.
  9. Activists motivated by the glyphosate success continue to target chemicals and regulatory authorities with legal challenges, especially in the EU/U.S., effecting other regions negatively. The climate change discussion continues — farming is front and center with water utilization and soil health.
  10. Iran destabilizes the Middle East and could ignite issues around the globe, from energy supply to alliances among national factions, leading to further provocation. My least favorite to mention but one to watch.
  11. Last but not least, whatever you believe, 2020 will see climate changes. Being an experienced Aggie, I see this as neutral. Hoping for the best! Manage through it if it affects you — you can’t control Mother Nature.

Advertisement

AgriBusiness Global connects the crop input value chain from raw material manufacturers down to distributors and trading partners around the world. Our content empowers smarter sourcing and business decisions by providing key insights to buyers and sellers of crop inputs including crop protection (both traditional agrochemical and biocontrol) and plant health products (including fertilizers, biostimulants, macro and micronutrients). See all author stories here.

Hide picture