Africa is the world’s second-largest continent at some 30 million km² covering approximately 20% of the Earth’s land. It is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the west, the Indian Ocean to the east and the Mediterranean Sea to the north. The cropping area is vast with an estimated agricultural land area of some 1,100 million ha according to the FAO. This equals 23% of the global available agricultural land area and is on-par with that available for all of the Americas.
Within the continent of Africa there is a diverse range of countries from productive South Africa in the south to more climatically challenging countries in central and Northern Africa. By necessity that diversity leads to the sub-division (OECD) of the African continent into five regions: Northern Africa, Central or Middle Africa, Southern Africa, East Africa, and Western Africa. From an agricultural perspective, however, climate is the key factor in determining which countries make up Southern Africa.
Traditionally the region has been the focus of off-patent lower cost products from the “generic” industry rather than from the proprietary side. In 2019 and 2020, however, the increase focus on insecticide sales — in part the due to the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) — is beginning to change this as is the raw material price increase of the generics. As such the growth potential and the “price point” of the Southern African market is beginning to become more attractive to both generics and R&D companies alike.
South Africa — A Growth Market for Crop Protection Products
South Africa is the focus of this article given the dominance of the country within the region of Southern Africa.
Outlook for 2020
Agronomically 2020 is anticipated to be a favorable year. Despite late planting, due to rainfall deficits, South Africa’s corn and sunflower production estimate has been pushed higher after good weather boosted yields. Specifically, rainfall in December 2019 and January 2020 led to an increase in soil moisture reserves and so minimized the impact of the earlier dry weather conditions at planting. Larger corn planted area will also provide a boost to 2020 crop protection product use. Weather forecasts for the February‑April 2020 period indicate that the cumulative amount of rainfall is likely to be average, underpinning the favorable expectations for most crops.
The outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in South Africa in November 2019 is a concern as it potentially reduces the demand for feed grain for livestock throughout all of 2020. Early indications are, however, that the outbreak is under control and restricted to Limpopo Province. Nevertheless, the development of the disease as well as ongoing Land Reform policies both have the potential to disrupt and provide uncertainty to the prospects of the South African market going forward.