Coronavirus Will Delay Agricultural Export Surges Promised in U.S.-China Trade Deal

The novel coronavirus has shocked the world’s economies, writes Wendong Zhang, Iowa State University, and Tao Xiong, Huazhong Agricultural University, at Farm Forum. The virus has spread to more than 100 countries and many U.S. states. This has rattled global stock markets, plunging the Dow more than 2,000 points on March 9 – the biggest one-day drop since the 2008 Great Recession.

Concerns about potential global economic decline has made implementation of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal uncertain. This deal requires China to purchase an additional US$12.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products in 2020, and $19.5 billion more in 2021.

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In our recent research on the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. agriculture, we argue that China has the capability to make these purchases, despite delays and disruptions to supply chains and trade flows caused by the coronavirus. A resilient and recovering Chinese economy means the country can comply with the trade deal and potentially minimize damage to the U.S. economy from an ongoing trade war.

Continue reading at Farm Forum.

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