Australia: Cotton Forecasts Shrinking
24 August 2007 USDA-FAS estimates that about 60,000 hectares (Ha) will be planted to cotton in 2007/08, which would be the smallest cotton planted area in Australia since the 1978/79 season.
The estimated production for 2006/07 is 1,100 bales, or 250 TMT. The harvest for the 2006/07 cotton crop is complete, and planting for 2007/08 is set to occur from mid-September to mid-October.
As the vast majority of Australia cotton is grown under irrigation, the primary determining factor of production is the availability of irrigation water. Rainfall in the catchment areas and the growing areas during September and October will be vital for any improvment in cotton production.
Irrigation Supplies Low
Currently, cotton producers in northern New South Wales (NSW) are not expecting a general allocation of irrigation water which would be needed for significant production of cotton. These growers represent around half of Australian cotton production. Cotton grown in northern NSW, as well much of the cotton grown in other areas, will rely on underground water and water that can be harvested from other sources (such as on farm storage).
Although irrigation water reservoirs have gained some water in recent months, they are not at levels where crops such as cotton can be allocated water. Government reports concerning irrigation water reserves show that additional water availability would likely initially be made available for uses other than broad acre crop production. Regional towns, livestock, industry, and environmental requirements are all higher on the pecking order than crop production. Assuming inflows into the system over the next three months will be enough to increase water storage levels, the first agricultural users to receive water will be those who have "carry over" water allocations, or those who had water entitlement "suspended" during trade. If those needs are met, the next users will be "high security" water users – tree and vine fruit producers (citrus, stone fruit, viticulture, etc). The last group to receive irrigation water will likely be broad acre agricultural users, who are considered general allocation (rice, cotton, etc).
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