Indian Cotton Takes Hit, Still At Record Levels
8 September 2006 Crop damage, heavy rains, and flooding have lowered expectations for Indian cotton, but the country remains on pace for another record year, with approximately 26 million bales expected to be produced. While this is slightly down from earlier estimates, it would still mark the fourth consecutive year of record cotton harvests in the country.
August rains might delay new crop arrivals by two to three weeks in the region, but except for some parts of southern India, cotton planting is nearly finished. Based on the latest provisional cotton planting figures provided by state agricultural departments, cotton area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares (Ha). Most cotton growing areas received good rains in July and August, providing optimal planting and growth conditions. Planting in northern regions (Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan) was over by the first week of June, and in central region (Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh) by mid-August. Planting in parts of southern India (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu) is expected to be over by first week of September. A small summer cotton crop in the South will be planted in November and December. Market sources report some shift in planted area towards cotton from other competing crops such as peanuts, coarse cereals, sugarcane, and rice in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Punjab, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
Some pockets in the central states of Gujarat and Maharashtra received heavy rains in August, causing flooding and some crop damage. However, these rains also replenished soil moisture and improved yield prospects in this major non-irrigated cotton belt, partially offsetting the flood damage. The crop is progressing well under optimum growing conditions and does not show any major pest incidence, which may again limit crop protection product sales. There are no reports of pest or disease incidence from central and south India.
Although estimates are not yet available, market sources report that area planted to improved genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton varieties during the current season is two or three times higher than last years level of 2.5 million Ha. This is expected to contibrute to a higher 2006-07 cotton yield compared to MY 2005/06. However, long wet spells in September could hamper crop yield and quality, particularly the irrigated crops in north India and Gujarat.
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