Russian Grain Production Down
7 April 2006 Unofficial grain forecasts for 2006 range from 65 million metric tons (MMT) to 76 MMT, a drop in production of nearly 5.5 MMT from last year. Major losses to winter grains and limited grower access to modern inputs such as high-yield seeds are the main causes for the shortfall, reports the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture cites grain winterkill on 3.5 million hectares (Ha) of the total 14 million Ha sown to winter grains. The damage was estimated at approximately 7 MMT of “potentially lost” grain. The most significant losses due to winter frosts were reported in Volgograd oblast, Saratov oblast, Rostov oblast, Belgorod oblast and Krasnodar Kray, as well as in Bashkortostan Republic and Tatarstan Republic.
Some southern territories have reported that winterkill is less than originally estimated. In Stavropol kray, crop conditions on most winter grain and canola sown area (approximately 1.7 million Ha) have been “good and satisfactory.” According to scientists from a research institute in Stavropol, nine to 10 days’ periods of frost did not lead to major crop damage because of adequate snow cover on most of fields in Stavropol, although re-sowing and repair of some fields will be necessary.
Winter barley suffered more than winter wheat. Winter canola suffered the greatest damage, but its area in Stavropol kray is only 52,800 Ha. According to the Minister of Agriculture, the first official grain crop forecast will be made in April, as recent cold spells may further damage the winter crop.
In order to maintain the total grain sown area at approximately 44 million Ha (the level of the last two years) 34 million Ha must be sown to spring grains, or almost 3.5 million Ha more than last year, when area sown to spring grains was 30.6 million Ha. The wheat production forecast for 2006 is 42.5 MMT, or 2.1 MMT less than in 2005, and the share of wheat in grain crop production is expected to decrease from 61% in 2005 to 58% in 2006.
Inputs Put Out
Decreased grain prices throughout 2005 led to substantial farmer income losses. With the costs of fuel, fertilizer, and machinery all rising faster than grain prices and the winter kill further damaging the largely uninsured farming population, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates the cost of used seeds, fuel, lubricants, chemicals, and fertilizers at US $245 million. Last year’s performance and these winter kill losses will create a major barrier to any production increases in 2006.
In terms of fertilizers, the Ministry of Agriculture reports that mineral fertilizer use on Russian farms is 1.5 MMT, while the country’s “need” is 6 MMT — a sign that fertilizer supply in the country is not sufficient to improve agronomic conditions. According to MinAg, in order to revive weakened winter crop plants, Russian farmers need to apply 500,000 MT of nitrogen (N) fertilizer in the Spring of 2006, while stocks on farms as of March 1 were only 300,000 MT. Currently, domestic prices of mineral fertilizer are too high for farmers, and Russian fertilizer companies export almost 90% of their production.
In seed, he use of high quality varieties increased in barley and maize production, while most wheat farmers producing still use saved seed. Demand for seeds should increase in 2006 according to the Ministry of Agriculture, as farmers will need 700,000 MT of additional seed to re-sow the frost-damaged winter crops.
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