Ukrainian Grain Prospects Low, Oilseeds High
22 February 2006 Sown area and cold temperatures limit Ukraine’s wheat crop, but sunflower production reaches record highs.
After a reduction in sown area, recent cold temperatures have increased concerns over Ukraine’s winter wheat crop, but it will not be another 2002/03, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
At the same time, production of the Ukraine’s three major oilseed crops — sunflower seed, soybeans and canola — reached 5.6 million tons in 2005. This is almost 1.1 million tons over the previous record for production set in 2003.
After a sharp drop in areas planted with winter wheat, Ukraine’s major crop, in Fall 2005 (to be harvested in June/July 2006), low temperatures in January 2006 raised more concerns over the production outlook for 2006.
At this point, winterkill rates for barley and winter wheat in 2005/2006 are expected to exceed the levels recorded during the previous two seasons, but lower than the disastrous 2002/2003 season. During 1978-2005, losses in the Ukraine averaged 14% of the area planted (excluding the worst and the best years).
Reliable information based on actual testing of winter crop samples taken after January frosts is not yet available. At this point, USDA-FAS in Kiev, Russia expects that winter grain losses in 2006 will be higher than average. After a serious reduction in winter wheat area in Fall 2005, recent low temperatures further reduced production prospects in 2006.
Get The Newsletter Today!
