Phosphate and Potash Outlook: Top Market Drivers to Watch in 2021
This year is shaping up to be an interesting one for phosphorus and potash.
What a difference a year makes! As we made our prognostications on the markets for phosphate and potash fertilizers one year ago (in January 2020), the COVID-19 pandemic was still in its early days and we were unaware of the significant impacts to lives and livelihoods that would transpire in 2020, writes The Mosaic Co.’ Andy Jung at CropLife. Despite the many hardships, however, it is important to note that global demand for agricultural products was one sector that saw relatively limited impacts from COVID-19. With robust demand and supplies that struggled to keep pace, many ag commodities witnessed sharp recoveries in 2020 — most notably in the second half of the year — which continued in the early days of 2021.
Fertilizer prices also recovered, driven, as expected, by a tightening of the global supply/demand balances for both phosphorus (P) and potash (K), coupled with buyers returning to the market in force once it was perceived that prices had indeed “bottomed out” and demand improved across most geographies. For example, normal 2020 weather in North America appears to have resulted in a substantial “catch up” of demand after three prior weather-interrupted seasons.
At the same time, supplies struggled to keep pace with demand, as COVID-19 restricted output in some locations and some newer facilities underperformed expectations as they looked to ramp up production.
Before we move into expectations for 2021, let’s take a look at a few of our forecasts from last year:
Chinese ag commodity demand: “The decision to suspend the [ethanol] rollout is quite likely a function of Chinese corn inventories being lower than what many analysts have been assuming. This sets the stage for a potentially big step up in Chinese corn imports.”
We appear to have gotten that one right, although admittedly we didn’t anticipate the strength of Chinese import demand across such a broad swath of commodities. With respect to corn, January-November imports at a record-setting 9 million tonnes are up 123% year-over-year. China will set annual import records for many key ag commodity products in 2020, including corn, soybeans, and across the animal protein complex.
Phosphate prices: “… we see no way that prices can be sustained at the level seen at the end of 2019, and if the past is any guide, they will snap back sharply … We anticipate that a tightening global supply/demand balance will see wholesale prices recovering throughout the year,” and “the bottom line is that signs point towards a meaningful tightening of the supply/demand balance as we move through 2020, which should translate to a recovery of wholesale prices.”
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