编者按：特约撰稿人 David Li 在其月刊中简要介绍了当前中国农用化学品市场上主要除草剂、杀菌剂和杀虫剂的价格趋势，详见 中国价格指数. He also provides insight on how China’s leading manufacturers still view glyphosate as a profitable product, amid the background of global inflation, crisis in Eastern Europe, and the ongoing epidemic in China.
With the disclosure of the 2022 Q1 financial report of all major China stock listed pesticide manufacturers, the operation situation of China’s pesticide industry has been revealed. Under the background of global inflation, crisis in Eastern Europe, and epidemic prevention and control in China, Chinese pesticide enterprises still take 草甘膦，重点燃尽除草剂，作为主要的利润贡献产品。
一季度，主要草甘膦生产商的销售收入，如 兴发集团, 温卡、和邦生物科技、 南通江山, were far ahead of the entire China agrochemical industry. Sales volume and net profits for equity holders were at an outstanding high. It is worth noting that many companies’ Q1 financial results were also the result of the delay of December 2021 backlog orders to the first quarter of 2022. In addition, the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta region is still a concern, and the uncertainty of raw material supply and shipment logistics is a point for overseas buyers to organize purchase orders in advance.
For glyphosate, a resource-intense product, Chinese manufacturers remain the main suppliers to meet the early procurement demand for generic active ingredients (AIs). Reviewing the 2021 annual reports of listed pesticide companies, the advantages of Xingfa and Hebang in phosphate mineral resources enable the profitability of the enterprise to continue to move toward scale effect and high-profit margin because of the 2021 global inflation and high pricing. The strong demand for glyphosate in recent years has led to a gradual increase in assets for Hebang. A similar glyphosate enterprise, Nantong Jiangshan, is stagnant due to limited asset growth. The future development of Hebang and Jiangshan will be influenced by the expansion of business scale and growth of Hebang Bio. Due to its high net profit and large business scale, Wynca is rich in cash. In the future, investment in China’s pesticide industry and other chemical-related industries will be Wynca’s M&A strategy focus, and the whole industry value chain related to halogen may be the focus of its future strategic layout.
Even though glyphosate as a single product has brought prosperity to the entire industry. The consequences of the herbicide’s high price are also significant and far-reaching. When the price of agricultural inputs increases substantially, the demand from farmers for low-level products increases. When global inflation became a key risk, the consumer’s purchasing habit to buy “lower value” portfolios such as milk, eggs, and wheat flour increases. The early and strong demand for glyphosate from multinational companies and distributors in 2021 is a case in point.
由于原材料价格上涨，草甘膦价格从 2021 年 3 月开始逐步攀升。 双重管制政策 was the trigger for the price surge. This has undoubtedly increased farmers’ anxiety about future income after the pipeline was stuffed with high-priced glyphosate product lines from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. High food prices are likely to erode farmers’ profits due to higher total “cost of goods sold” (COGS), which discourages farmers from investing, and potentially leads to reduced production, and maybe a crisis in the food supply. Given the potential global food shortage caused by the Russia and Ukraine war, this secondary inflationary crisis will be of particular concern to the global agricultural industry in 2022.
其次，草甘膦的高价，以及渠道内草甘膦的高库存，将使其再次成为潜在风险。上一次出现这种情况是2012年到2013年，跨国公司正在积极督促经销商囤积安全库存。销售执行可以支持跨国公司的销售团队实现销售目标。另一方面，它可以占据渠道上的现金流，组织渠道供应商从其他竞争对手那里获取产品。当全球经济面临滞胀压力时，渠道竞争将成为战场。
As for the China supply side, the high profits of glyphosate also attracted investors in China’s domestic secondary market for investment on large-scale production enterprises of glyphosate. For such resource-intensive products, upstream mineral resources become the key support point for enterprises to achieve scale effect and improve profit margin. With the release of the “十四五”规划 of China pesticide industry, the performance of China’s listed pesticide companies has gradually become polarized under the trend of increasing consolidation, which will go deep into 2022. With the fluctuation of global demand, enterprises with large cash flow are proceeding with M&A of low-growth, China agrochemical companies.
中国主要农药制造商的市场范围图显示了基于其最近公布的2021年财务业绩的归属于公司股东的净利润分布和加权平均净资产收益率。气泡的大小代表公司2021年的销售收入。面积越大，显示的总销售额越高。位于市场范围右上方的公司在规模效应和盈利能力上均具有优势。草甘膦企业集中在这一领域。右下方企业虽然在投资回报率（ROI）方面比较突出，但无论是上游资源管控还是新产线扩建，仍需通过加大金融投资支持力度，提升规模效应和资产积累。左上角的企业是资产建立程度最高、盈利能力较高的企业，其目标是扩大销售收入，提高投资回报率。左下角的企业有一定的盈利能力，他们可能专注于利基市场。较低的业务量，但高利润的人工智能和接触中间体，是他们未来的战略。
除了领先的草甘膦制造商之外，继续投资于利基产品组合的创新公司也面临着一些挑战。 里尔的 优点是新工艺开发。为了扩大业务规模，他们可能正在寻求扩大业务范围。 L-草铵膦将是利尔化工未来的核心发展领域。氟咪嗪和氯虫苯甲酰胺将成为利尔新的归属利润点。 2021年利尔的停产影响了其净利润表现，否则利尔将处于高增长，市场范围的左上角。
From Part B of the China market scope, it shows the progress of pursuing producers. Sales ranking can tell us something about a company, but it can’t explain the essence of company growth. Although 颖泰生物 生产基地位于江苏省，因响水地区事故被迫停产。业务规模依然可观，大客户合作稳定。引入Wynca作为战略投资者后，双方未来的合作将成为中国农药行业优势互补的案例。 Nutrichem将新建年产4,000吨甲基磺草酮和1,000吨氧氟草醚的产能，预计2022-2023年投产。同时，新建年产4000吨嘧菌酯和3000吨戊唑醇项目预计2023-2024年投产。未来三年，纽迪凯需要持续的资金支持来克服盐城南生产基地的损失，而新产能的建设将是其业务增长的关键。
在提高二氯中间体吡虫啉、啶虫脒等仿制药的收率、质量和成本的基础上， 海利尔 has entered into trial production of the second generation of nicotinoid insecticides like thiamethoxam and clothianidin in June 2020. And prothioconazole has entered into trial production in September 2020. Hailir has penetrated overseas market by professionals in the global B2B agrochemical business layout. In the field of marketing, Hailir has gradually developed from a traditional agrochemical manufacturing enterprise to a global agrochemical business. Prothioconazole will be seen as the basis of Hailir’s entrepreneurial spirit in future.
中旗 是企业不可忽视的重要供应商，无论是资产增长还是利润率的提升。 2021年归属于Flag Chem股东的净利润较2020年增加8.88%，加权平均净资产收益率较2020年同期减少0.38%。
In July 2020, Flag Chem set up a holding subsidiary Anhui Ningyitai Technology, located in Anhui (Huaibei) Novel Coal Chemical Synthetic Material Base. Flag Chem built a new chemical production facility with an annual output of 15,500 Mt of novel AIs and supporting intermediates. New infrastructure investment should be the main reason for Flag Chem’s low return on assets. Flag Chem’s portfolio structure included sales of AIs, which was approximately 1.197 billion CNY, pesticide formulation of 146 million CNY, and pesticide intermediates of 294 million CNY (see figures below). The business growth of pesticide intermediates had increased by 63.89% year-on-year in 2020, according to their 2021 financial report. The cooperation with core customers like major multinational companies in the field of intermediates should be the sales strategy of Flag Chem in coming years. In the market segment, Flag Chem’s fluroxypyr, clothianidin, lufenuron, and other niche products are in a leading position of China supply market. In the future, gradual expansion of new niche portfolios is the core competitive advantage for such technological innovation-oriented enterprises to maintain long-term growth.
由于历史的复杂性以及与跨国公司和经销商的合作，很难捕捉到中国农化企业未来的经营目标和战略，这无疑在环保风暴和响水事件中暴露无遗。对于中国公司的分析，必须将公司竞争优势概况（CCAP）方法引入采购团队，该方法由 SPM 填补SWOT的关键弱点。 SWOT 不足以为高层管理团队做出决定。我们将供应商的 CCAP 分析与买家的 CCAP 分析结合起来，创造互补和协同效应，有助于在供应链中创造价值。
Usually, we take the professional ethics and past business behaviors of a suppliers’ management team or person in charge as the quantitative criteria of Reputation & Compliance. For R&D evaluation, the proportion of the company’s annual R&D investment in the company’s sales revenue is an important index, while the third-party alliance initiated by suppliers is a bonus item for their competitiveness in this field. GSP is mainly based on the quality control of enterprises in the field of segmented products, like the controlling of main impurities. Full Upstream is evaluated based on suppliers’ investment in upstream companies. The marketing strategy is a relatively cautious evaluation, which requires an in-depth analysis of suppliers’ way for engaging overseas channel. Relying too much on channels will result in a lack of market control ability compared with having independent teams to operate the pipeline.
全球注册包括三个部分：全球注册数量、全球注册布局和对跨公司的支持。 2012年以来，中国农药生产企业积极开展自己的海外注册。他们在支持贸易企业的同时，也积极联系零售商，这是一种向下游市场渗透的主动营销策略。与跨国公司合作，在一定程度上可以证明供应商的产品质量和供货能力符合跨国公司的标准。但是，对于全球布局，我们有时将其视为其自主发展的某种不利因素，因为企业的战略自主权会受到限制。
草甘膦和草铵膦市场现状
4 月，日元兑美元汇率下跌超过 7%。新一轮的货币博弈可能已经开始。过去一个月，人民币兑美元贬值3.8 %，进入快速调整期。 中国证券时报. Russia’s war with Ukraine has battered Europe’s economy, weakening the euro and pushing up the dollar. The recent move above 100 on the USD Index reflects a trend of global money flowing back to the US from Europe and emerging markets. Against the backdrop of accelerated tightening of US dollar liquidity in 2022, the possibility of a sustained rise in the future of the USD Index is high. The total value of China’s goods exports in 2021 increased by 26.1% from 2019 due to disruptions in global production following the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, according to data released by the 中国海关. However, due to the recovery of overseas production in 2022 and the pandemic of Omicron in China, China’s export may fall slightly this year.
对全球经济的预期也反映在草甘膦和草铵膦价格上。草甘膦供应市场总体平稳。尽管东欧出现危机，但草甘膦原料供应仍保持正常价格，主要生产商运营平稳。由于上海Omicron大流行的影响，全球买家对原材料和成品运输的担忧正在增加。预计5月份到上海港的运输将总体保持平稳。由于卡车司机短缺，国内城市到上海港的陆路运输成本将增加。
For the overseas market, logistics is still in the stage of high cost, but overseas will gradually relax the control of the epidemic. It will take some time to recover to the pre-pandemic level. Overseas demand should be cautiously optimistic in 2022 as supply gaps persist from 2020 to 2021, and total cost of product sold remain high. Due to short-term CNY exchange rate fluctuations, exchange rate change offset part of the trend of glyphosate price strengthening, resulting in stable price changes in USD of glyphosate AI. At the end of April, the EXW price of 95% glyphosate AI in China remained between 9 USD/Kg and 10 USD/Kg. When the downstream customers get more reliable future demand, the overseas demand for Chinese glyphosate, which generally occurs in Q4, may be coming earlier than China’s expectation. The purchasing team should establish long-term purchasing plan with suppliers in time. As the CNY is likely to maintain a conservative depreciation strategy after Q2 2022 in the long term, the Chinese government’s export stimulus could keep glyphosate prices relatively stable this year. High global inflation may make it hard for glyphosate prices to fall off a cliff in 2022.
3月底，中国草铵膦AI价格创下近几个月来最低。草铵膦AI价格上涨主要是由于海外需求增加，2022年逐渐显现，但国内重点生产企业暂时停产导致缺口存在。供需关系正逐渐向供给主导转变。一些新的草铵膦产能将主要在 2022 年第三季度出现，因此短期内难以重建供需平衡。 4月底，95%草铵膦出厂价涨至32美元/公斤以上。由于合约线较长，草铵膦价格仍有上涨空间。欧洲和新兴供应国能源供应的不确定性也可能推高中国草铵膦的价格。 2022年，跨国公司在抗草铵膦作物推广上的布局将进一步拉动海外需求。具备上游原材料控制能力的草铵膦重点生产企业将成为采购商的首选合作伙伴。