India: Outlook 2010
10 February 2010 Despite a very late start to the monsoon season and poor rain in some major markets, the rains finally came in good supply throughout much of the country in late 2009, resulting in replenished water levels and good soil moisture, creating a favorable environment for crops recently planted. Also favorable for spring harvest (rabi), commodity prices have risen since the fall harvest.
Consequently, farm incomes should rise, perhaps creating more opportunity for crop protection chemicals. Specifically, fungicide use is expected to rise as farmers have more money to spend and are more knowledgeable about their affect on yield. In addition, a shortage of farm workers in rural areas could result in more herbicide use to supplement weed management by cultivation.
Insecticides, on the other hand, have the potential to diminish slightly due to greater covers of BT 2 cotton. Generic pesticides, in general, could lose market share to a few new molecules that are expected to be launched in 2010. However, the overall value of the Indian market is expected to rise.
Growth in the 2010/11 growing season is expected to increase in value about 7%, assuming that commodity prices continue to improve as expected and that the monsoon season is somewhat normal. The overall Indian gross domestic product is expected to rise 7% as well, further increasing the purchasing power of produce buyers and bolstering farm incomes.
Some uncertainty exists as India awaits a new pesticides management bill, which has been drafted, but the final version is still waiting for parliamentary approval.
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