Ukraine: Grains, Pulses Surge

Matt Hopkins Posted by Matt Hopkins|1 April 2008

Production of grains and pulses (wheat, barley, corn, rye, oats and peas) is expected to climb by 20% this season, driven by a 36% increase in wheat production. The US Dept. of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS) reports that production of wheat is partly influenced by government policies, as wheat remains a politically charged topic in Russia, and the impending presidential election is drawing more attention to it from politicians.

Grains and Pulses Outlook

For wheat in 2008, production is expected to increase by nearly 36%, a result of the 10% increase in the winter wheat sown area — 700,000 hectares (Ha), minimal winter-kill losses due to the mild winter, lower then expected frosts, and higher than average yield expectations.

Barley production is forecast to increase 50% over last year. Winter barley area (which represents 10% to 15% of total production) increased by 28% over the previous year. Winter barley yields are expected to be historically high due to the mild winter weather. However, the area planted to spring barley is expected to be down 19% due to the high sown area of winter crops and the switch by farmers to crops with higher profitability like sunflower, canola, and soybeans.

Production of corn is expected to decrease due to sown areas decreases. The reasons for the decrease are similar to barley. The decrease in area planted with corn is expected to be approximately 7%.

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Farmers increased the area planted with winter rye in Fall 2007, and rye production is now expected to increase. Assuming the yields are higher than average, rye production will be about 0.7 million tons.

The area planted with oats is expected to be average, approximately the same level as in the past two years. The current level is equal to the average for the past 10 years.

Peas have become an important export crop for the past four or five years. High global demand has kept the sown area more or less stable since 1999/00. For 2008/09, the sown area for peas is expected to be slightly higher than last year. Despite high export prices and strong international demand for Ukrainian peas, risks remain. The major problem is rain during harvest which can make harvesting impossible, which has kept farmers from increasing the pea area.