Shift Seen in Distribution of Fertilizer Demand – Report
6 May 2013 Global fertilizer demand is forecast to increase substantially over the next two decades, but a major shift is set to occur in the distribution of fertilizer demand, according to a new report by research and data provider Integer.
The study, Global Fertilizer Demand: The Long-Term Outlook, shows how global crop production and fertilizer consumption are expected to change to 2030.
China and India are currently the biggest fertilizer consuming countries in the world and have been the main drivers of fertilizer demand over the past decade. Between 1990 and 2010, fertilizer demand for N, P and K grew by a total of 26.3 million tonnes in China and 16.0 million tonnes in India, Integer said. Integer forecasts total N, P and K demand in China and India to grow by 6.4 and 6.3 million tonnes respectively between 2010 and 2030.
“Both countries are currently over applying nitrogen and phosphates”, says Oliver Hatfield, Integer Research Director of Fertilizers, “This is not sustainable in the long term.”
Moving towards more efficient N and P application will result in lower fertilizer application and thus slower growth in fertilizer demand in both countries. However, other regions are expected to experience significant fertilizer demand growth, such as Brazil, which will see the biggest increase between 2010 and 2030. Total nitrogen, phosphates and potash increase over the last 20 years was approximately 4.4 million tonnes. “Over the next 20 years demand growth in Brazil is likely to be more than four times as high,” Integer said.
Malaysia and Indonesia will also see accelerated demand, as will developed agricultural areas such as Europe and the United States.
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