编者按：特约撰稿人 David Li 在其月刊中简要介绍了当前中国农用化学品市场上主要除草剂、杀菌剂和杀虫剂的价格趋势，详见 中国价格指数。下面他还深入剖析了中国农化企业如何探索各种市场策略，以及为什么他们的未来道路必须是国际化。
一本中国古书， 易经，以龙的状态开篇来描述人类的状况。龙超出适当限度；龙卧藏（在深处）；龙出现在田野里；还有天上展翅的龙。这四个成语的意思是龙从高位降到低位，让其反省自己的行为和德行，改掉自己的坏性格，发挥自己的长处，重新开始。
中国古代人很有趣，他们把自然规律融入到了他们的人生哲学中。就像季节的更替一样，中国人将人类状态视为一个循环。几千年来，中国人以类似于DNA双螺旋的结构延续了这种不断升级的文化。中国人可能是世界上最乐观的民族之一。无论遇到什么样的危机，中国人始终坚定不移地寻找出路，积极努力解决问题。
At the beginning of the Year of the Dragon, China’s leading pesticide companies had released company earnings forecasts of 2023. Among the companies that released their earnings forecasts, 40% of listed pesticide companies were in the red in 2023. Almost all pesticide companies had experienced a decline in performance compared to 2022.
在中国众多农药企业中，只有拥有矿产资源优势的草甘膦企业才能保持可观的利润。和邦和 兴发 就净利润贡献而言，无疑遥遥领先于其他公司。 利尔， 和 集群优势 以及工艺升级能力，也仍保持$85万美元至$89万美元的利润。这充分说明了对矿产资源的掌控、全产业链、区域集群发展模式是降低成本、提高盈利能力的关键。
对于研发能力较强的企业来说，竞争非常激烈 超容量 in China’s supply and low-market prices for AIs, which has led to a decline in profitability. Process improvement alone is difficult to sustain cost reductions during the maturity of an AI product’s life cycle. It must be supported by upstream controlling of raw material costs. Therefore, in China’s pesticide industry, the era of the strongest is coming.
如果总结中国农药企业业绩不佳的关键因素，最常被提及的是：价格低廉、销量减少、去库存、竞争激烈、新产品重资产投入。
进入龙年以来，国内农药产品价格持续走低。以草甘膦AI为例，在美元兑人民币汇率相对稳定在7.1-7.2区间期间，草甘膦AI的EXW价格相对稳定。供应方面，虽然部分企业在需求疲软期间调整了装置开工率，但供应市场草甘膦原料充足。未来几个月草甘膦价格将保持稳定、小幅走强的走势。
草甘膦AI EXW价格走势
可以预计，2024年上半年海外需求将继续以碎片化订单为主。虽然受厄尔尼诺气候影响，但北美和阿根廷的天气状况将对农作物种植产生一定有利影响。但巴西气候干燥，会给中国采购带来很大的不确定性。因此，2024年上半年海外需求可能难以大规模释放。
2023年，北美市场需求疲软。 2024年，北美市场（B2B层面）的重启对于中国企业尤其是草甘膦和草铵膦企业来说非常重要。不过根据网友的评论 特里·基普利，主席 农业技术生产者和分销商委员会 (CPDA)北美经销商对中国AI的采购将从2024年第二季度开始逐步重启。
TARIFEL’s Dr. Nicholas Potrie with Huang Yazhong, China Ambassador to Uruguay. Photo credit: 中国大使馆.
尼古拉斯·波特里博士， 导演 塔菲雷尔，花费大量时间在农业第一线与农民一起工作。他对拉丁美洲需求的判断令人信服。
经过三年干旱后，南方共同市场成员国（主要是乌拉圭和阿根廷）即将迎来乐观的收成年。 Potrie 预计产量增加将抵消谷物和大豆价格下跌的负面影响。
Of note, the 2023 winter planting season was in good shape. This has favored agricultural production in the region and farmer payments. Although farmers are active in application, stocks of goods in the channel remain adequate. Brazil, the world’s most important agricultural exporter, has seen an increase in the country’s planted acreage. Combined with Argentina’s exposure to El Niño weather, agricultural production in 2024 is expected to be better than in previous years. These two factors could drive soybean prices lower.
就中国人工智能的渠道需求而言，Potrie认为未来增长可能缺乏动力。这主要是由于海外渠道的库存水平和中国人工智能产品的价格较低所致。
Potrie, who is also currently president of the Uruguay-China Chamber of Commerce, emphasized that the agricultural economy is a global closed-loop. China’s demand for meat and dairy products, although recently weakened, still has a stronger growth potential than the rest of the world. Therefore, China’s demand for agricultural products in Latin America will, to some extent, drive Latin American farmers’ demand for Chinese ag inputs. The most important thing now is the free trade agreement between China and Latin America. Potrie is confident about the future of bilateral trade between Latin American countries such as Uruguay and China.
It is worth mentioning that Potrie shared TAFIREL’s core values. TAFIREL cooperates with local farmers in each market to make business tangible. The company’s goal is to help farmers experience high-quality, eco-friendly products for increasing the yield and production of food.
这对于中国企业来说是一个非常重要的启示。面对艰难的行业，企业也应该根据第一原则审视自己创业的原因。公司需要为当地农民、当地农业和当地社区带来什么价值？
如今，新产能的竞争和投资成为中国供应市场的新闻焦点。对于不同类型的中国农药企业来说，他们选择的战略路径也有所不同。
对于像兴发这样利用资源作为竞争优势的公司来说，他们正在从草甘膦生产转向其他除草剂类别，如2,4-D。与此同时，草甘膦企业也在寻求更深入地利用其磷酸盐资源。因此，兴发正在为其未来的L-草铵膦产能做准备。
In addition, for listed glyphosate companies, their mineral resources and capital management capabilities allow them to get involved in the new energy track. There are limited new energy sectors in which Chinese chemical companies can participate. Because the new energy field mainly includes three segments, one is power battery positive and negative electrode. The second is the battery diaphragm. The third is electrolyte. The production of positive and negative electrodes for power batteries requires heavy asset investment and upstream mineral resources. This is precisely Xingfa’s advantage. Another Chinese glyphosate company, 温卡，也在布局未来动力电池电极业务。
此外，值得注意的是，中国农化企业正在不断深入探索渠道拓展的可能性。 2023年，中国草甘膦企业面临业绩下滑的巨大压力。这也让更多的公司认识到市场路径（RTM）对于可持续发展和在有前景的市场中检测增长利润的重要性。 2023年， Xingfa’s acquisition of Indonesian agrochemical company AMCO 是一次典型的尝试。
Unlike Xingfa, companies with Cluster model and full industry chain as their core competence focus on the scale effect of their own products. Lier is a typical case. The improvement of scale can make the enterprise has the possibility to reduce the cost. At the same time for the market, the enterprise can dominate the market price. Generally speaking, in a complete competitive market, the company with the largest capacity has a pricing advantage. For example, Bayer’s 300,000 tons of glyphosate capacity could affect the price of the 700,000 tons of glyphosate capacity held by Chinese companies.
In addition, with the cost advantage of scale, these companies will choose a market entry strategy that reaches as wide a range of customers as possible. The companies’ channel layout in such category could be their weak point. They choose to focus more on serving key customers. Another weakness of this type of firm is the development of new products. The opportunity cost of making strategic choices is huge due to the firm’s investment in scale. Once the decision is made to choose a particular product, then the firm needs to make a sustained investment in scale. Slow or even no strategic turnaround is a common problem for this type of firm. In the Cluster model, the out-of-house upstream suppliers to the firm are more willing to provide a steady supply of non-diversified products. This is an external resistance to the firm’s strategic shift.
对于专注于研发的公司来说，他们面临的问题是节奏。 颖泰生物 has continued to invest over the past five years to make up for its supply capacity shortfall. This was mainly due to Nutrichem losing key production infrastructure in Jiangsu province, Yancheng South, during the environmental storm. This left Nutrichem short of supply for key customers. External co-production would be bound to bring higher supply costs. The price competitiveness of the company’s products is further missing in China’s overcapacity environment.
此外，Nutrichem 还可能面临定价机制的挑战。在完全竞争的市场中，价格由市场决定。更准确地说，是由市场竞争者决定的。企业要做的就是根据市场价格进行工艺改进和研发，以节省生产成本。这是保证企业持续盈利的关键。 Nutrichem 长期以来一直采用生产定价。这显然无法为销售带来有竞争力的价格，从而在未来的竞争中吸引重点客户的订单。
Furthermore, such kind of companies’ R&D cadence for new compounds over the past few years has been behind the rest of the industry. Multinationals have many choices of partners in China. Some SMEs in China used to find it difficult to invest in their own data package and reach overseas customers. But now, due to the increasing penetration of MNCs’ sourcing intelligence tentacles in China, MNCs as key customers can take the lead in cultivating new suppliers themselves. Traditional R&D-based AI companies are no longer necessarily the first choice.
当然，Nutrichem也积极致力于内部变革管理。例如，它投入巨资建设异丙甲草胺新产能，以满足跨国公司的需求。同时，公司拥有上游碳酰氯资源。现有生产设施的升级也在进行中。但从长远来看，Nutrichem与全球植保公司需求的深度融合还有很大的提升空间。
海利尔 has the best category management among all Chinese companies. The global launch of the company’s prothioconazole was the milestone of the performance growth. For Hailir, deeper penetration in the global market is the key to its success, especially since Hailir has a top-notch B2B business team in Brazil. This is a case study to learn from for Chinese pesticide companies that commonly set up subsidiaries and hold registrations in Brazil. A globalized team can develop business efficiently with globalized operations combined with cultural identity.
在产品线方面，海利尔也在积极布局新化合物。持续的研发投入和创新是海利尔能够在丙硫菌唑供应商中脱颖而出的关键驱动力。除了成功的 B2B 市场路线经验之外，Hailir 还将获得更轻松的新产品发布体验。
On the other side, new compounds and new categories require companies to reorganize their upstream raw materials. This will be a challenge for Hailir’s product category management in the future. Compared with the layout of the whole industry chain, Hailir pays more attention to technological innovation and market integration. In 2023, 海利尔和拜耳作物科学 signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and both sides reached a consensus on product development and market cooperation. This also confirms the strategic principle of “integration of AIs and formulations, integration of Chinese market and overseas market” put forward by Yaolun Ge, Chairman of Hailir.
In short, Chinese pesticide companies are currently in a trough. However, if you are familiar with the “Flying Geese Paradigm,” you can understand that this is an inevitable issue when a country’s industrial development comes to a mature stage. Overcapacity is a result, but not the end. The future path of Chinese pesticide enterprises will be and must be 国际化.
Just as Zheng He led his fleet of ships on one oceanic exploration after hundreds of years ago, Chinese companies today must also choose to go international. Today’s Chinese companies must also choose to go out and explore new markets across the ocean. This reminds me of Chinese ancestors’ use of the dragon as a metaphor for the human condition. The Chinese dragon is not the same creature as the Western perception of the dragon. The Chinese dragon is most importantly virtuous, a metaphor for people who are upright, friendly, and courageous enough to take on social responsibilities. I believe that starting from the Chinese Year of the Dragon, the Chinese Dragon will sow compassion in the world’s farmlands and help the world’s agricultural development.