Predictive Intelligence Caught the U.S. Glyphosate Dip. What Could It Tell You Next?
Kynetec’s predictive intelligence tool, AgMeta, provides a powerful view of current and historic market conditions alongside predictions for the coming year. But let’s take a moment to look back. In 2022, AgMeta predicted a dip in glyphosate sales, an event many in the sector would not have expected. Glyphosate is a mainstay of the conventional crop protection toolbox; a herbicide used to control in-crop weed infestation, for cleaning seed beds in preparation for planting, as well as desiccating key crops such as OSR.
Many sales portfolios, brand targets, and sales quotas include this key herbicide. Understandably, the next questions raised are:
Why did glyphosate dip? Will sales recover? And what else can AgMeta predict that CP sales teams need to know about?
We spoke with Matt Lewis, SaaS Account Manager at Kynetec, and predictive intelligence expert, to share his insight on these key questions.
Q: Matt, how did AgMeta predict the glyphosate dip, and what data sources are behind it?
Matt Lewis, Kynetec
Matt Lewis: In 2022, prices for glyphosate and other crop protection products had skyrocketed as a result of pandemic-related supply chain challenges – everything from factories shutting down to ships that couldn’t get unloaded at U.S. ports, and even a lack of ocean freight containers. Farmers, retailers, and distributors purchased all they could to hedge against further shortages. Going into the 2023 season, manufacturers responded to the shortage with significant additional supply, while rising interest rates increased the need for businesses to move that inventory. This resulted in a “perfect storm” scenario that sent prices tumbling as manufacturers, distributors, and retailers all worked to reduce their inventories.
AgMeta accurately predicted this using a multitude of data sources, including farm financials, weather forecasts, trade dynamics and commodities, macroeconomics and other market dynamics, micro level spending behavior…to name but a few. Because of the availability of certain data points, AgMeta is capable of predicting one year ahead — however, this can be done multiple times in a year. Kynetec offers an alternate predictive intelligence tool named Interlytics for long-term projections.
Q: What are the on-farm factors that have resulted in the reduced market size for glyphosate in 2023?
ML: The same crippling lending rates causing pain for manufacturers and retail also hit the farm. Growers often take out lines of credit for seasonal operations, and high interest rates on loans causes farm operations to pinch pennies by better managing their own inventories. Many had stocked up on inputs going into 2023 and did not need to purchase as much during the season. This caused inventories to back up from the farm shed right back to the manufacturers, kicking off a “race to the bottom” on prices as manufacturers and the channel tried to unload expensive excess inventory. The laws of supply and demand were on full display this year.
Q: What is your next big prediction?
ML: Glyphosate was not alone on the market rollercoaster this year. There are some definite bright spots looking ahead at 2024, and we see some interesting dynamics in the soybean fungicide market next year that I feel are particularly valuable to stakeholders planning sales, marketing, purchasing, and even supply chain actions for the coming season. One of those segments is soybean fungicide, projected to see a significant increase in U.S. market value in 2024.
If I were in the soy fungicide business as so many companies are, I would definitely want to know about that prediction!
We’ve back tested this platform against the last five years of market data, and found our projections to be 98% accurate on acreage alone.
Q: Tell us a little about AgMeta and how sales managers can get hold of it.
ML: AgMeta is a simple, web-based tool designed primarily for sales teams to improve the accuracy and efficiency of budget allocation, territory and account planning, forecasting, allowing for better in-season agility, and even gauging sales performance across territories in the U.S. It enables better and more productive conversations with marketing professionals who are looking at similar data provided to them from Kynetec’s FarmTrak and Interlytics platforms. AgMeta provides a powerful view of current and historic market conditions alongside predictions for the coming year in a format even the least-savvy computer user can navigate easily. Many smaller companies see value in the platform specifically for their marketing professionals as well. Anyone interested in learning more or gaining access to the tool can contact me at [email protected].
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