A Future In Drought
29 April 2008 In a recent editorial, I brought up the topic of biofuels becoming a scapegoat for several serious problems in modern agriculture, most importantly the rapid rise of food prices.
Opinions I received on the topic were mixed. Some readers believed (correctly, I think) that part of the problem is certainly attributable to the crop area shifts and lower availability of feed corn as contributing to price increases — one reader in China noted that the cost of milk, in particular, has skyrocketed, as a result of the increase in costs for dairy farmers.
On the other hand, as I referenced in the editorial, there is also a certain amount of reactionary backlash that isn’t as well founded. The price of rice, which has also risen and provides the bigger issue for the world’s food supply, as it is our most important food crop, overall – is only slightly affected by biofuel production. Sure, input costs for rice farmers are affected by input price increases, but not at the level of more intensely farmed crops. In its case, weather is the bigger topic, especially as we gain a clearer understanding of the debated issue of global warming.
I recently read an article on dawn.com, a Pakistani news web site, discussing the price spike (in some cases doubling, or more) for rice in the country, which has led to many other issues, such as dealers cutting premium with low qualities and consumers buying as little as possible to survive.
The immediate reaction of several Asian governments has been to step in and try to stop the rising prices with policy maneuvers: the article notes that India has called for an export ban to keep prices in check; other countries have in place or are considering rationing systems or imposing export taxes to keep rice in-country.
It is difficult to say whether these are sustainable initiatives. Perhaps a year and a strong rice crop from now, the problems will be fixed and prices can settle back to normal. But if not, there is still hope for rice, in the form of seed technologies.
Many groups and companies are focusing on drought tolerant varieties of rice, including major seed businesses, academic institutions, and government bodies. And, thankfully, there is also a fair amount of collaboration to get these technologies off the ground.
There might not be an issue with more weight in agriculture today and in the coming years. In fact, if biofuels are to be held accountable for hunger, it may just be because while biofuels steal the spotlight in the media as well as R&D departments around the world, the most pressing issue facing us gets shorter shrift.
If climate change is to be taken seriously, we need to be prepared to change our agricultural production methods; a water shortage means more crops on less drops. The work being done now on draught-tolerant crops, even as it flies under media radars that remain focused on biofuels, may be what allows us to stave off a future of increased world hunger.
Get The Newsletter Today!
