Sunny Outlook For Citrus?
15 December 2008 The US has traditionally been the world’s top grower of citrus fruits, at least until 2005 when Brazil took the top spot. The two countries continue to battle for the vast US orange juice market (Americans drink more orange juice than any other nation), with the advantage this season once again going to Brazil.
US Frozen Out?
An early 2007 freeze caused the US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to revise their crop report in March. NASS has reduced the national navel orange forecast estimate to only 54 million cartons. Says California Citrus Mutual’s President Joel Nelsen, “The industry … will be fortunate to pack 30% of the crop remaining on the tree after the freeze.” He adds that the NASS forecast “does not present an accurate picture of the citrus industry’s disastrous loss.”
While the amount of acres planted hasn’t changed, the average set per tree for navel oranges has dropped from 461 in 2005/06 to 294 in 2006/07. California’s valencia oranges, which tend to recover better in past freezes, haven’t fared much better, with an estimate of 20 million cartons, down 26% from last season. California grapefruit (9.6 million cartons) is also down by 20% from last season’s final estimate; lemons (33 million cartons) are down by 21%; and tangerines (5.2 million cartons) will come in 28% below last season, acording to NASS’s forecasts.
Florida also was hit hard by the January freeze, which caused the most damage since the 1989/90 season, resulting in the smallest crop in recent history. Only 130 million boxes of oranges and 27 million boxes of grapefruit are expected, said CEO Mike Sparks of Florida Citrus Mutual.
In addition to freezing temperatures, Florida has battled invasive pests and diseases like citrus canker and greening. Appropriations in excess of US$10 million have been requested for research to fight these diseases. Since 2004, orange acreage has decreased by 15%, grapefruit is down close to 29%, and specialty fruits are down almost 22%. Currently, Florida has just over 70 million orange trees on 529,241 acres, with tree removals outnumbering new tree plantings by more than 5 to 1.
Brazil Helps Out
Florida isn’t alone in being plagued by citrus diseases; greening has become such a problem in the US and abroad that Brazil and the US are working together to combat it. A panel of US citrus growers who recently visited Brazil presented their reports on best management practices in July at the 2007 Florida Citrus Industry Annual Conference. Greening — which is deadly to crops, reducing their life span from over 50 years to less than 15 — has killed trees in Africa and Southeast Asia. Currently, there is no known cure.
Unlike Florida, however, Brazil forecasts an estimated orange output of 454 million boxes for 2006/07, 11% better than the previous season. Even with a reduction in planted area and fruit-bearing trees, mostly caused by Sudden Death Syndrome (which has affected over two million trees since 2002) and competing crops such as sugarcane for ethanol, Brazil looks forward to an excellent harvest.
Around 140 countries produce citrus, with 70% of production taking place in the Northern Hemisphere. Brazil, the Mediterranean countries, the US, and China make up more than two-thirds of global production. Countries in the Southern Hemisphere — like Argentina, Australia, and South Africa — have improved their market presence by supplying off-season fruits to countries in the north. While world citrus production is up, a combination of weather, pests, and disease mean that lower production numbers from Spain and the US should offset increased harvests from Brazil and Mexico this season.
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